American Electric Power Company, Inc.
AEP · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
46
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
68
Momentum
57
Fundamental
41
Macro
24
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 68.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 57.2 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 40.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 67.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 126.77 |
| Stop Loss | 121.25 (4.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 132.29 (+4.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 137.81 (+8.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.76 (2.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.52 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 69.4 | +0.78 | |
| Momentum | 52.0 | +0.08 | |
| Quality | 30.0 | -0.80 | |
| Composite | 50.5 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.30
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.7 | 16.0 | +30% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.1 | 1.8 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% | 3.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
123.18
vs
Market Price
126.77
Upside
-2.8%
| Margin of Safety | -2.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 15,156,742,675 |
| Terminal Value PV | 51,920,711,605 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 67,077,454,280 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,666,000,912 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 13.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
29.66%
Full Kelly
14.83%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
50.16
RSI(14)
1.6412
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
70
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+6.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Utilities) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 3d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -2.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 50.16 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.6412 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 123.89 / 127.23 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.55x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 140.58 |
| Bollinger Upper | 132.47 |
| SMA(200) | 127.23 |
| SMA(50) | 123.89 |
| SMA(20) | 127.67 |
| Current Price | 126.77 |
| Bollinger Lower | 122.87 |
| 52-Week Low | 112.54 |
| ATR(14) | 2.76 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.22x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 127.94 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 124.75 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 126.35 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 124.44 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 124.44 – 126.35 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 126.77 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 119.75 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 122.87 – 132.47 | KC: 123.54 – 131.8
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 126.75
Anchor: 2026-01-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+0.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 69.03B |
| P/E (TTM) | 20.71 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.11 |
| EPS | 6.12 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 13.7% |
| Profit Margin | 14.2% |
| ROE | 10.6% |
| Debt/Equity | 161.93 |
| Current Ratio | 0.51 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.44 |
Trading Data
126.77
Open
126.77
Day High
126.77
Day Low
5.83M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)