Affirm Holdings, Inc.
AFRM · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
55
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
70
Momentum
48
Fundamental
60
Macro
24
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 69.5 | 10% |
| Momentum | 47.6 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 59.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 64.2 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 69.66 |
| Stop Loss | 61.46 (11.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 77.86 (+11.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 86.06 (+23.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.10 (5.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.20 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 48.4 | -0.06 | |
| Momentum | 43.3 | -0.27 | |
| Quality | 100.0 | +2.00 | |
| Composite | 63.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
2.65
—
Grey Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.6 | 18.0 | -30% below |
| P/B Ratio | 4.1 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
172.36
vs
Market Price
69.66
Upside
+147.4%
| Margin of Safety | +59.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 10,090,991,016 |
| Terminal Value PV | 41,079,676,403 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 51,170,667,419 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,313,405,800 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
35.85%
Full Kelly
17.93%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 55/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
43.82
RSI(14)
-0.2112
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
73
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-2.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | No (19d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -12.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 43.82 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.2112 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 72.73 / 66.53 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.86x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 90.44 |
| Bollinger Upper | 79.64 |
| SMA(200) | 66.53 |
| SMA(50) | 72.73 |
| SMA(20) | 73.74 |
| Current Price | 69.66 |
| Bollinger Lower | 67.85 |
| 52-Week Low | 42.09 |
| ATR(14) | 4.1 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.74x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.85x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 73.04 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 74.31 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 73.68 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 78.23 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 73.68 – 78.23 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 69.66 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 70.43 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
2 bars
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 67.85 – 79.64 | KC: 67.39 – 80.1
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 70.23
Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-0.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AFRM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 23.50B |
| P/E (TTM) | 12.60 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.11 |
| EPS | 5.53 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 35.2% |
| Profit Margin | 43.9% |
| ROE | 44.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 181.20 |
| Current Ratio | 9.48 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
69.66
Open
69.66
Day High
69.66
Day Low
7.22M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)