S&P 500 7718.60 -0.38%
NASDAQ 26506.99 -0.29%
TASI 11024.73 -0.40%
Oil (WTI) 91.48 +0.00%
Oil (Brent) 96.28 +0.00%
VIX 15.30 +5.30%
Gold 4476.60 +0.00%
USD/SAR 3.76 +0.02%

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

AFRM · Financial Services · · USD
72.35 USD
0.00 (-2.62%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

58
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 50
Momentum 73
Fundamental 67
Macro 64
Liquidity 47
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 20%
Trend & RS 50.4 30%
Momentum 73.4 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 47.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 72.35
Stop Loss 64.21 (11.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 80.49 (+11.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 88.63 (+22.5%)
ATR(14) 4.07 (5.6%)
Risk per Share 8.14
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 70.2 +0.81
Momentum 73.4 +0.94
Quality 100.0 +2.00
Composite 81.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 13.1 18.0 -27% below
P/B Ratio 4.5 2.5 Above

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
172.36
vs
Market Price
72.35
Upside
+138.2%
Margin of Safety +58.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)11,468,917,181
Terminal Value PV46,689,111,679
Total Enterprise Value58,158,028,860

Assumptions

Base FCF1,492,751,537
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
38.11%
Full Kelly
19.05%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
44.5
RSI(14)
-0.6113
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

38
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (+9.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Financial Services)
RS New High No (44d since high)
Sector Outperformance +5.6% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 44.5 NEUTRAL
Macd -0.6113 BEARISH
Ma Cross 77.09 / 66.51 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.72x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High92.56
Bollinger Upper80.06
SMA(200)66.51
SMA(50)77.09
SMA(20)75.57
Current Price72.35
Bollinger Lower71.09
52-Week Low42.09
ATR(14)4.07

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 2.17x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.48x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.76x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 79.84 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 79.84 Base line
Senkou A 79.84 Leading span A
Senkou B 79.84 Leading span B
Cloud 79.84 – 79.84 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 72.35 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 71.51 Bullish
Alignment Score 1/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 12 bars Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 71.09 – 80.06  |  KC: 69.56 – 81.58

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 14
Hidden Bullish MACD 14
Hidden Bearish MACD 16

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 69.51 Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +4.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/AFRM

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap24.41B
P/E (TTM)13.08
Forward P/EN/A
P/B4.45
EPS5.53

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth33.0%
Profit Margin45.3%
ROE45.1%
Debt/Equity182.77
Current Ratio11.98
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta3.61

Trading Data

72.35
Open
72.35
Day High
72.35
Day Low
3.87M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

Consumer Pressure Rises, but So Does Demand for Affirm's Services
Zacks · 2026-09-04
Affirm (AFRM) Stock Gets Fair Value Boost After Analysts Back Growth Roadmap
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
What Are You Actually Buying In PayPal Stock?
Trefis · 2026-09-03
Affirm Rallies 6% on $104 Price Target From BofA, Sezzle Climbs 4%, PayPal Rises 3%
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-02
Affirm CEO delivers bad news for U.S. consumers as demand spikes
TheStreet · 2026-09-02
Sirius XM upgraded, Toast downgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls
The Fly · 2026-09-02
BofA tells investors to consider buying hidden-value fintech stock
TheStreet · 2026-09-01
SoFi Drops 4%, Affirm Falls 5% as Yields Hit Balance-Sheet Lenders, Robinhood Holds Steady
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-01

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —