Affirm Holdings, Inc.

AFRM · Financial Services · · USD

83.78 USD

+0.00 (3.08%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:10 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 91

Fundamental 63

Macro 78

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	98.4	30%
Momentum	91.1	15%
Fundamental	63.4	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	41.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	83.78
Stop Loss	75.64 (9.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	91.92 (+9.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	100.06 (+19.4%)

ATR(14)	4.07 (4.9%)
Risk per Share	8.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	9.1	-1.64
Momentum	91.1	+1.64
Quality	60.7	+0.43
Composite	53.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.01 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	76.2	18.0	+323% above
P/B Ratio	7.4	2.5	Above

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

34.29

Market Price

83.78

Upside

-59.1%

Margin of Safety	-144.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,990,183,456
Terminal Value PV	8,101,889,326
Total Enterprise Value	10,092,072,782

Assumptions

Base FCF	259,034,865
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

55.44%

Full Kelly

27.72%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 87/100. Estimated win rate 66%, avg win 10.2%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

63.71

RSI(14)

4.3615

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+56.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+58.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	63.71	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.3615	BULLISH
Ma Cross	70.75 / 66.22	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.67x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	100.00
Bollinger Upper	90.27
SMA(200)	66.22
SMA(50)	70.75
SMA(20)	76.55
Current Price	83.78
Bollinger Lower	62.82
52-Week Low	42.09
ATR(14)	4.07

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	81.17	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	73.97	Base line
Senkou A	77.57	Leading span A
Senkou B	73.26	Leading span B
Cloud	73.26 – 77.57	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	83.78	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	71.01	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH