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Align Technology, Inc.

ALGN · Healthcare · · USD
158.63 USD
0.00 (-0.76%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

44
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 46
Momentum 33
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 47
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 20%
Trend & RS 45.6 30%
Momentum 33.4 15%
Fundamental 55.6 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 47.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 158.64
Stop Loss 146.84 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 170.44 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 182.24 (+14.9%)
ATR(14) 5.90 (3.7%)
Risk per Share 11.80
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 63.5 +0.54
Momentum 33.4 -0.67
Quality 35.3 -0.59
Composite 44.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 27.5 22.0 +25% above
P/B Ratio 2.7 4.0 Below

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
78.52
vs
Market Price
158.63
Upside
-50.5%
Margin of Safety -102.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)1,436,816,519
Terminal Value PV4,141,084,302
Total Enterprise Value5,577,900,821

Assumptions

Base FCF327,351,632
Growth Rate (5yr)4.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
28.35%
Full Kelly
14.18%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
41.76
RSI(14)
-4.0411
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

51
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-10.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High No (44d since high)
Sector Outperformance -13.2% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 41.76 NEUTRAL
Macd -4.0411 BEARISH
Ma Cross 171.39 / 170.55 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.23x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High200.44
Bollinger Upper180.2
SMA(200)170.55
SMA(50)171.39
SMA(20)164.57
Current Price158.63
Bollinger Lower148.93
52-Week Low122.00
ATR(14)5.9

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.6x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.85x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.86x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.23x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 158.45 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 168.09 Base line
Senkou A 163.27 Leading span A
Senkou B 172.47 Leading span B
Cloud 163.27 – 172.47 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 158.64 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 169.16 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 148.93 – 180.2  |  KC: 156.22 – 172.91

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 22
Hidden Bearish RSI 28

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 163.56 Anchor: 2025-09-25 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -3.0%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/ALGN

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap11.27B
P/E (TTM)27.54
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.67
EPS5.76

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth4.3%
Profit Margin10.0%
ROE10.2%
Debt/Equity2.85
Current Ratio1.40
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.64

Trading Data

158.63
Open
158.63
Day High
158.63
Day Low
990.5K
Volume (1.0x avg)

Recent News (8)

Has Align Technology (ALGN) Fallen Far Enough To Look Undervalued?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-06
What Does Align Technology (ALGN) Gain From Its Board Change?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-06
Align Technology (ALGN) Could Be 24% Undervalued On Mixed Earnings Guidance
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
2 of Wall Street’s Favorite Stocks with Exciting Potential and 1 We Find Risky
StockStory · 2026-09-04
Q2 Earnings Outperformers: Align Technology (NASDAQ:ALGN) And The Rest Of The Dental Equipment & Technology Stocks
StockStory · 2026-09-03
Why Is Align Technology (ALGN) Down 8.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks · 2026-08-28
Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Align Technology Stock?
Barchart · 2026-08-27
3 Mid-Cap Stocks We Approach with Caution
StockStory · 2026-08-21

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —