Align Technology, Inc.
ALGN · Healthcare · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
44
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
45
Momentum
50
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
57
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 44.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 49.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 57.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 159.37 |
| Stop Loss | 148.03 (7.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 170.71 (+7.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 182.05 (+14.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.67 (3.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.34 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 68.6 | +0.74 | |
| Momentum | 49.5 | -0.02 | |
| Quality | 38.0 | -0.48 | |
| Composite | 52.0 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.2 | 22.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 2.6 | 4.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 1.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
84.69
vs
Market Price
159.37
Upside
-46.9%
| Margin of Safety | -88.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,591,937,485 |
| Terminal Value PV | 4,377,259,918 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 5,969,197,403 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 386,832,948 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
27.81%
Full Kelly
13.9%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
58.98
RSI(14)
2.3887
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
37
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-3.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare) |
| RS New High | No (58d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -21.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.98 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.3887 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 150.24 / 168.57 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.32x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 200.44 |
| Bollinger Upper | 162.47 |
| SMA(200) | 168.57 |
| SMA(50) | 150.24 |
| SMA(20) | 151.0 |
| Current Price | 159.37 |
| Bollinger Lower | 139.54 |
| 52-Week Low | 130.23 |
| ATR(14) | 5.67 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.85x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.58x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.61x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.32x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 157.13 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 152.40 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 154.76 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 152.40 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 152.40 – 154.76 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 159.37 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 145.35 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 139.54 – 162.47 | KC: 143.05 – 158.96
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 22 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 166.59
Anchor: 2025-11-18 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-4.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 11.23B |
| P/E (TTM) | 23.23 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.62 |
| EPS | 6.86 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.9% |
| Profit Margin | 11.8% |
| ROE | 11.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 3.40 |
| Current Ratio | 1.43 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.74 |
Trading Data
159.37
Open
159.37
Day High
159.37
Day Low
1.39M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)