S&P 500 7559.45 +0.21%
NASDAQ 26226.06 +0.07%
TASI 10808.43 -0.42%
Oil (WTI) 71.59 -0.68%
Oil (Brent) 76.06 -0.31%
VIX 15.59 -1.58%
Gold 4112.90 -0.67%
USD/SAR 3.75 +0.01%

Arm Holdings plc

ARM · Technology · · USD
323.53 USD
0.00 (-1.32%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 17:11 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

77
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 100
Momentum 85
Fundamental 89
Macro 71
Liquidity 45
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 10%
Trend & RS 99.6 10%
Momentum 85.4 5%
Fundamental 88.9 40%
Macro 71.2 15%
Liquidity 45.4 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 324.92
Stop Loss 262.10 (19.3%)
Target 1 (1:1) 387.74 (+19.3%)
Target 2 (2:1) 450.56 (+38.7%)
ATR(14) 31.41 (9.7%)
Risk per Share 62.82
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 85.4 +1.42
Quality 66.9 +0.68
Composite 50.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 424.17 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 380.6 28.0 +1259% above
P/B Ratio 41.5 6.0 Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
22.01
vs
Market Price
323.53
Upside
-93.2%
Margin of Safety -1370.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,903,517,831
Terminal Value PV18,599,670,369
Total Enterprise Value23,503,188,200

Assumptions

Base FCF726,293,557
Growth Rate (5yr)20.1%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
49.83%
Full Kelly
24.91%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
48.08
RSI(14)
-2.3613
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

98
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+105.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (14d since high)
Sector Outperformance +100.8% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 48.08 NEUTRAL
Macd -2.3613 BEARISH
Ma Cross 309.23 / 181.34 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.06x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High452.70
Bollinger Upper437.55
SMA(200)181.34
SMA(50)309.23
SMA(20)356.6
Current Price323.53
Bollinger Lower275.65
52-Week Low100.02
ATR(14)31.41

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION C Confidence
56%
Spring (potential)
Acc: 2.5  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 No Demand 0.54x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-07-07 Normal 0.74x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.62x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 No Supply 0.06x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 326.20 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 371.57 Base line
Senkou A 348.89 Leading span A
Senkou B 323.31 Leading span B
Cloud 323.31 – 348.89 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 324.92 Inside Cloud
Chikou Span 411.83 Bearish
Alignment Score 1/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 275.65 – 437.55  |  KC: 305.84 – 407.37

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 10
Regular Bearish RSI 15
Hidden Bullish RSI 21

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 244.59 Anchor: 2026-02-05 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +32.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/ARM

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap345.56B
P/E (TTM)380.62
Forward P/EN/A
P/B41.55
EPS0.85

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth20.1%
Profit Margin18.4%
ROE12.0%
Debt/Equity5.93
Current Ratio6.00
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta3.77

Trading Data

323.53
Open
323.53
Day High
323.53
Day Low
687.9K
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

Nasdaq's hottest winners just fell behind: Chart of the Day
Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-10
Arm Holdings (ARM) Gains AI Licensing Momentum, Is The Upside Already Priced In?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Should Arm’s AI-Driven Licensing Surge and New AGI CPU Strategy Require Action From Arm Holdings (ARM) Investors?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Why Arm Holdings Stock Soared 224.4% Through The First Half Of 2026
Motley Fool · 2026-07-10
CPU Competition Gearing Up to Cool AMD’s Massive Run
Barrons.com · 2026-07-09
European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Rise Thursday
MT Newswires · 2026-07-09
Markets News, July 9, 2026: Stocks End Higher, Powered by Chip Shares; Oil Pulls Back as Investors Downplay Fighting Between US, Iran
Investopedia · 2026-07-09
Arm Holdings' Licensing Momentum Continues to Fuel Revenue Growth
Zacks · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —