Arm Holdings plc
ARM · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
47
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
65
Momentum
6
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
92
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 64.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 5.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 92.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 166.72 |
| Stop Loss | 134.60 (19.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 198.84 (+19.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 230.96 (+38.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 16.06 (9.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 32.12 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Momentum | 5.0 | -1.80 | |
| Quality | 65.7 | +0.63 | |
| Composite | 23.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 191.6 | 28.0 | +584% above |
| P/B Ratio | 19.6 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
27.12
vs
Market Price
166.72
Upside
-83.7%
| Margin of Safety | -514.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,721,737,237 |
| Terminal Value PV | 23,292,768,149 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 29,014,505,386 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 744,720,004 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
30.35%
Full Kelly
15.17%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
27.19
RSI(14)
-20.8806
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
98
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-36.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (31d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -46.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 27.19 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -20.8806 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 254.39 / 230.56 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 2.67x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 452.70 |
| Bollinger Upper | 270.8 |
| SMA(200) | 230.56 |
| SMA(50) | 254.39 |
| SMA(20) | 223.1 |
| Current Price | 166.72 |
| Bollinger Lower | 175.41 |
| 52-Week Low | 100.02 |
| ATR(14) | 16.06 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.61x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 2.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 200.50 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 240.75 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 220.63 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 250.06 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 220.63 – 250.06 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 166.72 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 292.34 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 175.41 – 270.8 | KC: 200.71 – 245.49
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 248.92
Anchor: 2026-02-05 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-33.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ARM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 178.39B |
| P/E (TTM) | 191.63 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 19.63 |
| EPS | 0.87 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 27.1% |
| Profit Margin | 17.1% |
| ROE | 11.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 5.50 |
| Current Ratio | 6.35 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 3.94 |
Trading Data
166.72
Open
166.72
Day High
166.72
Day Low
15.30M
Volume (3.0x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)