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Arm Holdings plc

ARM · Technology · · USD
327.87 USD
+0.00 (9.20%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 16:11 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

86
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 100
Momentum 90
Fundamental 89
Macro 78
Liquidity 53
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 99.6 30%
Momentum 90.3 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 78.4 20%
Liquidity 53.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 327.87
Stop Loss 261.69 (20.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 394.05 (+20.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 460.23 (+40.4%)
ATR(14) 33.09 (10.1%)
Risk per Share 66.18
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 90.3 +1.61
Quality 66.9 +0.68
Composite 52.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 429.84 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 385.7 28.0 +1278% above
P/B Ratio 42.1 6.0 Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
22.01
vs
Market Price
327.87
Upside
-93.3%
Margin of Safety -1390.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,903,517,831
Terminal Value PV18,599,670,369
Total Enterprise Value23,503,188,200

Assumptions

Base FCF726,293,557
Growth Rate (5yr)20.1%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
54.6%
Full Kelly
27.3%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 86/100. Estimated win rate 66%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
48.68
RSI(14)
-1.8495
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

98
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+108.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (13d since high)
Sector Outperformance +72.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 48.68 NEUTRAL
Macd -1.8495 BEARISH
Ma Cross 306.7 / 180.44 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.69x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High452.70
Bollinger Upper438.48
SMA(200)180.44
SMA(50)306.7
SMA(20)355.73
Current Price327.87
Bollinger Lower272.98
52-Week Low100.02
ATR(14)33.09

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION C Confidence
56%
Spring (potential)
Acc: 2.5  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-02 Normal 0.74x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06 No Demand 0.52x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-07-07 Normal 0.71x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.6x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.69x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 326.20 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 371.57 Base line
Senkou A 348.89 Leading span A
Senkou B 323.31 Leading span B
Cloud 323.31 – 348.89 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 327.87 Inside Cloud
Chikou Span 402.71 Bearish
Alignment Score 1/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 272.98 – 438.48  |  KC: 303.58 – 407.88

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 9
Regular Bearish RSI 14
Hidden Bullish RSI 20

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 244.54 Anchor: 2026-02-05 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +34.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/ARM

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap350.19B
P/E (TTM)385.73
Forward P/EN/A
P/B42.10
EPS0.85

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth20.1%
Profit Margin18.4%
ROE12.0%
Debt/Equity5.93
Current Ratio6.00
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta3.77

Trading Data

327.87
Open
327.87
Day High
327.87
Day Low
7.06M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Nasdaq's hottest winners just fell behind: Chart of the Day
Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-10
Arm Holdings (ARM) Gains AI Licensing Momentum, Is The Upside Already Priced In?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Should Arm’s AI-Driven Licensing Surge and New AGI CPU Strategy Require Action From Arm Holdings (ARM) Investors?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Why Arm Holdings Stock Soared 224.4% Through The First Half Of 2026
Motley Fool · 2026-07-10
CPU Competition Gearing Up to Cool AMD’s Massive Run
Barrons.com · 2026-07-09
European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Rise Thursday
MT Newswires · 2026-07-09
Markets News, July 9, 2026: Stocks End Higher, Powered by Chip Shares; Oil Pulls Back as Investors Downplay Fighting Between US, Iran
Investopedia · 2026-07-09
Arm Holdings' Licensing Momentum Continues to Fuel Revenue Growth
Zacks · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —