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Arm Holdings plc

ARM · Technology · · USD
252.09 USD
+0.00 (3.92%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

69
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 74
Momentum 52
Fundamental 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 51
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 73.8 30%
Momentum 52.2 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 51.3 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 252.09
Stop Loss 218.93 (13.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 285.25 (+13.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 318.41 (+26.3%)
ATR(14) 16.58 (6.6%)
Risk per Share 33.16
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 52.2 +0.09
Quality 69.1 +0.76
Composite 40.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 335.00 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 257.2 28.0 +819% above
P/B Ratio 31.2 6.0 Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
27.70
vs
Market Price
252.09
Upside
-89.0%
Margin of Safety -810.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)6,008,181,692
Terminal Value PV23,576,093,297
Total Enterprise Value29,584,274,989

Assumptions

Base FCF837,310,878
Growth Rate (5yr)22.4%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
45.32%
Full Kelly
22.66%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 69/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
47.95
RSI(14)
-9.2036
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

96
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-31.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (54d since high)
Sector Outperformance -20.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 47.95 NEUTRAL
Macd -9.2036 BULLISH
Ma Cross 273.58 / 201.77 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.13x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High452.70
Bollinger Upper282.59
SMA(200)201.77
SMA(50)273.58
SMA(20)253.34
Current Price252.09
Bollinger Lower224.09
52-Week Low100.02
ATR(14)16.58

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 No Supply 0.59x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-01 Normal 0.81x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.67x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.13x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 246.57 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 259.34 Base line
Senkou A 252.96 Leading span A
Senkou B 299.68 Leading span B
Cloud 252.96 – 299.68 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 252.09 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 239.69 Bullish
Alignment Score 1/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 224.09 – 282.59  |  KC: 232.17 – 274.51

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 4
Hidden Bearish RSI 22

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 247.42 Anchor: 2026-02-05 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +1.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/ARM

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap269.23B
P/E (TTM)257.23
Forward P/EN/A
P/B31.20
EPS0.98

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth22.4%
Profit Margin20.2%
ROE13.4%
Debt/Equity5.62
Current Ratio5.25
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta3.89

Trading Data

252.09
Open
252.09
Day High
252.09
Day Low
4.13M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Arm Expands Into AI Accelerators With Samsung — But It’s Not the Data Center Goldmine Investors Hope For
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-07
Rising CPU Demand Positions Arm Holdings (ARM) for Gains
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-07
Marvell Rises 6% as Beaten-Down AI Silicon Bounces, Qualcomm Barely Budges
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Intel Witnesses an Uptrend in Estimate Revisions: Is it Worth Buying?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
Nvidia Sold Every Arm Share, but Its Vera CPU Still Uses Arm. Is That Really a Contradiction?
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-03
Can ARM's AGI CPU Push Unlock $15B in Revenues by FY'31?
Zacks · 2026-09-03
ARM vs. Sandisk: Comparing Steady Historical Revenue Generation Against Rapid Sequential Revenue Expansion
Motley Fool · 2026-09-02
3 Automation Stocks With Revenue Growth Up To 30%
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-01

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —