Atmos Energy Corporation

ATO · Utilities · · USD

167.56 USD

0.00 (-0.92%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 34

Momentum 44

Fundamental (0%) 51

Macro 64

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	34.0	20%
Momentum	44.1	20%
Fundamental	50.9	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	41.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	167.56
Stop Loss	162.42 (3.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	172.70 (+3.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	177.84 (+6.1%)

ATR(14)	2.57 (1.5%)
Risk per Share	5.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	69.2	+0.77
Momentum	44.1	-0.24
Quality	41.8	-0.33
Composite	51.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.31 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.0	16.0	+25% above
P/B Ratio	1.9	1.8	Inline
Dividend Yield	2.4%	3.5%	Below avg

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

116.84

Market Price

167.56

Upside

-30.3%

Margin of Safety	-43.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,048,402,019
Terminal Value PV	14,695,814,698
Total Enterprise Value	19,744,216,717

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,134,251,168
Growth Rate (5yr)	4.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

22.59%

Full Kelly

11.29%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 37/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

44.52

RSI(14)

-1.1654

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-5.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Utilities)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	44.52	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.1654	BULLISH
Ma Cross	172.03 / 173.62	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.72x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	192.51
Bollinger Upper	170.55
SMA(200)	173.62
SMA(50)	172.03
SMA(20)	168.12
Current Price	167.56
Bollinger Lower	165.7
52-Week Low	160.10
ATR(14)	2.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	167.12	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	169.25	Base line
Senkou A	168.19	Leading span A
Senkou B	173.08	Leading span B
Cloud	168.19 – 173.08	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	167.56	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	171.74	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH