Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
56
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
66
Momentum
55
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
59
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 66.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 55.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 58.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 175.00 |
| Stop Loss | 168.62 (3.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 181.38 (+3.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 187.76 (+7.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.19 (1.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.38 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 74.8 | +0.99 | |
| Momentum | 55.0 | +0.20 | |
| Quality | 41.8 | -0.33 | |
| Composite | 57.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.9 | 16.0 | +30% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.9 | 1.8 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% | 3.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
116.84
vs
Market Price
175.00
Upside
-33.2%
| Margin of Safety | -49.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,048,402,079 |
| Terminal Value PV | 14,695,814,872 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 19,744,216,951 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,134,251,181 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 4.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
36.82%
Full Kelly
18.41%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
65.82
RSI(14)
3.2702
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
65
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+8.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Utilities) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -0.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 65.82 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.2702 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 164.72 / 173.1 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.38x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 192.51 |
| Bollinger Upper | 178.51 |
| SMA(200) | 173.1 |
| SMA(50) | 164.72 |
| SMA(20) | 169.16 |
| Current Price | 175.00 |
| Bollinger Lower | 159.81 |
| 52-Week Low | 154.72 |
| ATR(14) | 3.19 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.41x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 175.34 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 168.12 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 171.73 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 168.12 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 168.12 – 171.73 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 175.00 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 156.38 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 159.81 – 178.51 | KC: 164.35 – 173.97
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 166.58
Anchor: 2026-10-01 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+5.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ATO
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 29.57B |
| P/E (TTM) | 20.86 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.94 |
| EPS | 8.39 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.8% |
| Profit Margin | 28.5% |
| ROE | 9.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 67.66 |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.55 |
Trading Data
175.00
Open
175.00
Day High
175.00
Day Low
1.41M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)