American Express Company
AXP · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
54
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
55
Momentum
52
Fundamental
62
Macro
22
Liquidity
72
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 54.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 52.4 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 62.1 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 72.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 324.97 |
| Stop Loss | 308.97 (4.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 340.97 (+4.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 356.97 (+9.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 8.00 (2.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 16.00 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 55.8 | +0.23 | |
| Momentum | 52.4 | +0.10 | |
| Quality | 58.8 | +0.35 | |
| Composite | 55.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
2.88
—
Grey Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.3 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 6.1 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
324.19
vs
Market Price
324.97
Upside
-0.2%
| Margin of Safety | -0.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 50,709,131,230 |
| Terminal Value PV | 166,676,610,032 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 217,385,741,262 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,521,838,656 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 11.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
35.08%
Full Kelly
17.54%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 54/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.2%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
55.78
RSI(14)
3.5765
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
37
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+0.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 60d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -10.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 55.78 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.5765 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 315.93 / 323.81 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.5x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 387.49 |
| Bollinger Upper | 332.22 |
| SMA(200) | 323.81 |
| SMA(50) | 315.93 |
| SMA(20) | 318.02 |
| Current Price | 324.97 |
| Bollinger Lower | 303.82 |
| 52-Week Low | 290.97 |
| ATR(14) | 8.0 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.07x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.77x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.27x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.5x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 327.96 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 320.09 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 324.02 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 320.09 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 320.09 – 324.02 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 324.97 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 301.16 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 303.82 – 332.22 | KC: 306.29 – 329.76
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 30 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 321.62
Anchor: 2026-03-20 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+1.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AXP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 217.91B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.31 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.09 |
| EPS | 17.75 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 11.3% |
| Profit Margin | 16.8% |
| ROE | 35.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 167.57 |
| Current Ratio | 1.58 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.08 |
Trading Data
324.97
Open
324.97
Day High
324.97
Day Low
4.57M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)