American Express Company
AXP · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
52
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
44
Momentum
51
Fundamental
67
Macro
54
Liquidity
59
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 44.5 | 30% |
| Momentum | 50.7 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 59.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 320.99 |
| Stop Loss | 305.05 (5.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 336.93 (+5.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 352.87 (+9.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 7.97 (2.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 15.94 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 56.4 | +0.26 | |
| Momentum | 50.7 | +0.03 | |
| Quality | 58.8 | +0.35 | |
| Composite | 55.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.1 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 6.0 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
324.19
vs
Market Price
320.99
Upside
+1.0%
| Margin of Safety | +1.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 50,709,127,074 |
| Terminal Value PV | 166,676,596,381 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 217,385,723,455 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,521,837,876 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 11.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
33.59%
Full Kelly
16.79%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 52/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
52.09
RSI(14)
3.2202
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
36
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-0.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 61d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 52.09 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.2202 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 315.69 / 323.59 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.95x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 387.49 |
| Bollinger Upper | 332.13 |
| SMA(200) | 323.59 |
| SMA(50) | 315.69 |
| SMA(20) | 318.66 |
| Current Price | 320.99 |
| Bollinger Lower | 305.2 |
| 52-Week Low | 290.97 |
| ATR(14) | 7.97 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.49x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 328.27 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 321.16 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 324.72 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 320.09 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 320.09 – 324.72 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 320.99 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 301.85 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 305.2 – 332.13 | KC: 306.85 – 330.48
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 321.62
Anchor: 2026-03-20 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-0.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AXP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 215.24B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.08 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.02 |
| EPS | 17.75 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 11.3% |
| Profit Margin | 16.8% |
| ROE | 35.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 167.57 |
| Current Ratio | 1.58 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.08 |
Trading Data
320.99
Open
320.99
Day High
320.99
Day Low
2.93M
Volume (1.0x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)