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American Express Company

AXP · Financial Services · · USD
326.16 USD
0.00 (-1.11%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

46
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 34
Momentum 56
Fundamental 67
Macro 64
Liquidity 52
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 20%
Trend & RS 34.3 30%
Momentum 56.2 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 52.4 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 326.16
Stop Loss 313.88 (3.8%)
Target 1 (1:1) 338.44 (+3.8%)
Target 2 (2:1) 350.72 (+7.5%)
ATR(14) 6.14 (1.9%)
Risk per Share 12.28
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 52.4 +0.10
Momentum 56.2 +0.25
Quality 57.0 +0.28
Composite 55.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 19.8 18.0 +10% above
P/B Ratio 6.4 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.2% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value
319.71
vs
Market Price
326.16
Upside
-2.0%
Margin of Safety -2.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)49,364,455,170
Terminal Value PV166,536,787,119
Total Enterprise Value215,901,242,289

Assumptions

Base FCF8,897,882,462
Growth Rate (5yr)12.8%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
29.43%
Full Kelly
14.72%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
39.34
RSI(14)
-3.4368
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

23
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (+0.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High No (36d since high)
Sector Outperformance -2.9% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 39.34 NEUTRAL
Macd -3.4368 BEARISH
Ma Cross 341.37 / 335.78 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.89x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High387.49
Bollinger Upper346.62
SMA(200)335.78
SMA(50)341.37
SMA(20)335.44
Current Price326.16
Bollinger Lower324.26
52-Week Low290.97
ATR(14)6.14

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.12x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.0x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.95x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.89x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 331.33 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 338.21 Base line
Senkou A 334.77 Leading span A
Senkou B 340.67 Leading span B
Cloud 334.77 – 340.67 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 326.16 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 336.25 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 324.26 – 346.62  |  KC: 326.88 – 344.0

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish MACD 18

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 325.89 Anchor: 2026-03-20 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/AXP

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap220.26B
P/E (TTM)19.80
Forward P/EN/A
P/B6.42
EPS16.47

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth12.8%
Profit Margin16.1%
ROE34.4%
Debt/Equity172.38
Current Ratio1.55
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.05

Trading Data

326.16
Open
326.16
Day High
326.16
Day Low
1.98M
Volume (0.7x avg)

Recent News (8)

25 Years After the Sept. 11 Attacks, Lower Manhattan Is Thriving
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-07
Visa vs. American Express: Which Financial Stock Is the Better Buy?
Motley Fool · 2026-09-06
American Express’ Q2 Revenue Miss Versus Peers Might Change The Case For Investing In AXP
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
Which is the best American Express credit card?
Moneyweek · 2026-09-04
‘They’re Absolute Hogwash’: Ramsey Blacklists AmEx, a Stock Up 470% in 10 Years
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Credit Card Stocks Q2 In Review: American Express (NYSE:AXP) Vs Peers
StockStory · 2026-09-03
Natalie Wolfsen
Barrons.com · 2026-09-03
3 Market-Beating Stocks to Keep an Eye On
StockStory · 2026-09-02

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —