Bilibili Inc.
BILI · Communication Services · · USDFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
38
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
21
Momentum
19
Fundamental
41
Macro
24
Liquidity
61
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 20.8 | 10% |
| Momentum | 19.3 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 40.7 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 61.0 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 14.43 |
| Stop Loss | 13.47 (6.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 15.39 (+6.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 16.35 (+13.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.48 (3.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 0.96 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 64.0 | +0.56 | |
| Momentum | 19.3 | -1.23 | |
| Quality | 31.1 | -0.75 | |
| Composite | 38.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
0.74
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.9 | 18.0 | +55% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.5 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 1.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
7.08
vs
Market Price
14.25
Upside
-50.3%
| Margin of Safety | -101.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 647,931,622 |
| Terminal Value PV | 1,713,060,528 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 2,360,992,150 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 136,124,792 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
22.76%
Full Kelly
11.38%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 38/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
54.92
RSI(14)
-0.2958
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
2
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-19.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Communication Servic) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -19.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 54.92 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.2958 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 14.66 / 20.27 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.09x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 36.40 |
| Bollinger Upper | 15.16 |
| SMA(200) | 20.27 |
| SMA(50) | 14.66 |
| SMA(20) | 13.78 |
| Current Price | 14.25 |
| Bollinger Lower | 12.4 |
| 52-Week Low | 12.64 |
| ATR(14) | 0.48 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.59x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.09x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 13.67 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 14.19 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 13.93 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 14.88 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 13.93 – 14.88 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 14.43 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 14.44 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 12.4 – 15.16 | KC: 13.07 – 14.48
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 30 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 13.68
Anchor: 2026-10-30 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+5.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/BILI
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 5.89B |
| P/E (TTM) | 27.94 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.50 |
| EPS | 0.51 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.2% |
| Profit Margin | 4.9% |
| ROE | 10.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 59.78 |
| Current Ratio | 1.32 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.62 |
Trading Data
14.25
Open
14.25
Day High
14.25
Day Low
5.63M
Volume (1.8x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)