Bilibili Inc.

BILI · Communication Services · · USD

15.23 USD

0.00 (-1.74%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 18

Momentum 13

Fundamental 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 78

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	20%
Trend & RS	17.8	30%
Momentum	13.0	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	78.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	15.23
Stop Loss	14.11 (7.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	16.35 (+7.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	17.47 (+14.7%)

ATR(14)	0.56 (3.7%)
Risk per Share	1.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	62.7	+0.51
Momentum	11.8	-1.53
Quality	31.1	-0.75
Composite	35.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	28.2	18.0	+57% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	3.0	Below

Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

7.49

Market Price

15.23

Upside

-50.8%

Margin of Safety	-103.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	860,551,990
Terminal Value PV	2,275,205,589
Total Enterprise Value	3,135,757,579

Assumptions

Base FCF	180,794,480
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

16.65%

Full Kelly

8.33%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 31/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.8%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

32.25

RSI(14)

-0.647

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-17.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Communication Servic)
RS New High	No (25d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-15.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	32.25	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.647	BEARISH
Ma Cross	17.5 / 22.98	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	3.18x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	36.40
Bollinger Upper	18.58
SMA(200)	22.98
SMA(50)	17.5
SMA(20)	16.75
Current Price	15.23
Bollinger Lower	14.92
52-Week Low	15.16
ATR(14)	0.56

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

64%

Buying Climax Sign of Weakness

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.6x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Stopping Volume	3.18x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	16.14	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	17.31	Base line
Senkou A	16.73	Leading span A
Senkou B	17.31	Leading span B
Cloud	16.73 – 17.31	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	15.23	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	19.10	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH