Carrier Global Corporation

CARR · Industrials · · USD

69.98 USD

+0.00 (3.20%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 88

Momentum 78

Fundamental 74

Macro 65

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	88.3	10%
Momentum	77.9	5%
Fundamental	74.3	40%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	37.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	69.67
Stop Loss	64.99 (6.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	74.35 (+6.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	79.03 (+13.4%)

ATR(14)	2.34 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	4.68
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	32.4	-0.70
Momentum	77.9	+1.12
Quality	29.2	-0.83
Composite	46.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.10 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	46.6	18.0	+159% above
P/B Ratio	4.3	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.4%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

18.84

Market Price

69.98

Upside

-73.1%

Margin of Safety	-271.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,148,071,583
Terminal Value PV	11,501,135,993
Total Enterprise Value	15,649,207,576

Assumptions

Base FCF	996,696,508
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

44.03%

Full Kelly

22.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

50.39

RSI(14)

0.3873

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+2.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+10.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	50.39	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3873	BEARISH
Ma Cross	67.82 / 60.03	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.15x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	81.09
Bollinger Upper	75.59
SMA(200)	60.03
SMA(50)	67.82
SMA(20)	71.07
Current Price	69.98
Bollinger Lower	66.54
52-Week Low	50.24
ATR(14)	2.34

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	70.22	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	71.19	Base line
Senkou A	70.71	Leading span A
Senkou B	68.77	Leading span B
Cloud	68.77 – 70.71	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	69.67	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	67.58	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL