Carrier Global Corporation

CARR · Industrials · · USD

68.31 USD

+0.00 (0.73%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 77

Momentum 75

Fundamental 56

Macro 71

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	77.1	30%
Momentum	75.3	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	71.2	20%
Liquidity	37.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	68.74
Stop Loss	64.20 (6.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	73.28 (+6.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	77.82 (+13.2%)

ATR(14)	2.27 (3.3%)
Risk per Share	4.54
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	35.4	-0.59
Momentum	75.3	+1.01
Quality	29.2	-0.83
Composite	46.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	45.5	18.0	+153% above
P/B Ratio	4.2	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.4%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

18.84

Market Price

68.31

Upside

-72.4%

Margin of Safety	-262.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,148,071,517
Terminal Value PV	11,501,135,809
Total Enterprise Value	15,649,207,326

Assumptions

Base FCF	996,696,492
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

46.4%

Full Kelly

23.2%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

47.83

RSI(14)

0.3131

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+1.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+9.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	47.83	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3131	BEARISH
Ma Cross	67.8 / 60.02	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.02x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	81.09
Bollinger Upper	75.63
SMA(200)	60.02
SMA(50)	67.8
SMA(20)	71.02
Current Price	68.31
Bollinger Lower	66.42
52-Week Low	50.24
ATR(14)	2.27

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.02x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	70.22	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	71.19	Base line
Senkou A	70.71	Leading span A
Senkou B	68.77	Leading span B
Cloud	68.77 – 70.71	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	68.74	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	67.58	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL