Carrier Global Corporation

CARR · Industrials · · USD

59.71 USD

+0.00 (1.07%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 44

Momentum 43

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	44.4	30%
Momentum	43.0	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	46.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	59.71
Stop Loss	56.47 (5.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	62.95 (+5.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	66.19 (+10.8%)

ATR(14)	1.62 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	3.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	41.1	-0.36
Momentum	43.0	-0.28
Quality	27.9	-0.88
Composite	37.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	42.6	18.0	+137% above
P/B Ratio	3.8	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.6%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

18.76

Market Price

59.71

Upside

-68.6%

Margin of Safety	-218.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,007,286,683
Terminal Value PV	11,457,035,873
Total Enterprise Value	15,464,322,556

Assumptions

Base FCF	923,244,047
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

32.86%

Full Kelly

16.43%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 50/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

42.65

RSI(14)

-1.7427

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-15.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (50d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-11.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	42.65	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.7427	BULLISH
Ma Cross	64.65 / 61.04	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.85x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	76.76
Bollinger Upper	64.64
SMA(200)	61.04
SMA(50)	64.65
SMA(20)	60.43
Current Price	59.71
Bollinger Lower	56.23
52-Week Low	50.24
ATR(14)	1.62

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	58.74	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	61.29	Base line
Senkou A	60.01	Leading span A
Senkou B	66.46	Leading span B
Cloud	60.01 – 66.46	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	59.71	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	61.81	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH