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Caterpillar Inc.

CAT · Industrials · · USD
813.94 USD
+0.00 (1.72%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 18:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

64
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 67
Momentum 54
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 53
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 67.3 30%
Momentum 54.4 15%
Fundamental 55.6 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 53.2 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 813.94
Stop Loss 758.58 (6.8%)
Target 1 (1:1) 869.30 (+6.8%)
Target 2 (2:1) 924.66 (+13.6%)
ATR(14) 27.68 (3.4%)
Risk per Share 55.36
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 16.6 -1.34
Momentum 54.4 +0.18
Quality 57.9 +0.32
Composite 43.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 35.1 18.0 +95% above
P/B Ratio 19.3 3.0 Above
Dividend Yield 80.0% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
696.56
vs
Market Price
813.94
Upside
-14.4%
Margin of Safety -16.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)63,852,535,442
Terminal Value PV256,339,299,713
Total Enterprise Value320,191,835,155

Assumptions

Base FCF8,531,565,880
Growth Rate (5yr)24.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
42.35%
Full Kelly
21.17%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
45.48
RSI(14)
-18.9984
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

80
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-14.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High No (50d since high)
Sector Outperformance -10.0% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 45.48 NEUTRAL
Macd -18.9984 BULLISH
Ma Cross 872.16 / 771.12 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.88x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1073.46
Bollinger Upper875.32
SMA(200)771.12
SMA(50)872.16
SMA(20)823.71
Current Price813.94
Bollinger Lower772.1
52-Week Low416.44
ATR(14)27.68

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.26x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.03x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.97x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 802.92 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 853.19 Base line
Senkou A 828.06 Leading span A
Senkou B 921.43 Leading span B
Cloud 828.06 – 921.43 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 813.94 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 814.81 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 772.1 – 875.32  |  KC: 787.25 – 860.17

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish RSI 24

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 725.43 Anchor: 2025-09-09 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +12.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/CAT

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap374.15B
P/E (TTM)35.08
Forward P/EN/A
P/B19.29
EPS23.20

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth24.0%
Profit Margin14.5%
ROE57.0%
Debt/Equity232.78
Current Ratio1.37
Dividend Yield80.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.59

Trading Data

813.94
Open
813.94
Day High
813.94
Day Low
1.99M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Caterpillar's Power Generation Backlog Just Hit $72 Billion. The Construction Cycle Barely Matters Anymore.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-07
Jim Cramer flagged one stock quietly concentrating portfolios
TheStreet · 2026-09-04
CAT Has Left Its Peers Behind. Or Has It?
Trefis · 2026-09-04
Caterpillar (CAT) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
Caterpillar partners with FieldAI for equipment automation
Construction Dive · 2026-09-04
3 Market-Beating Stocks with Exciting Potential
StockStory · 2026-09-04
Heavy Machinery Q2 Earnings: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is the Best in the Biz
StockStory · 2026-09-03
That Dip In Caterpillar Stock Looks Tempting, But Don't Ignore The Catch
Trefis · 2026-09-03

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —