Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)
32
/ 100
Technical
33
Trend & RS
34
Momentum
0
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
89
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 33.3 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 34.4 | 30% |
| Momentum | 0.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 88.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 553.64 |
| Stop Loss | 492.96 (11.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 614.32 (+11.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 675.00 (+21.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 30.34 (5.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 60.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 31.4 | -0.74 | |
| Momentum | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Quality | 58.9 | +0.36 | |
| Composite | 30.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.7 | 18.0 | +21% above |
| P/B Ratio | 11.8 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
591.64
vs
Market Price
553.64
Upside
+6.9%
| Margin of Safety | +6.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 58,437,373,816 |
| Terminal Value PV | 212,294,134,856 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 270,731,508,672 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,327,600,054 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 17.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
17.39%
Full Kelly
8.69%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 32/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.9%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
19.74
RSI(14)
-53.4709
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
48
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-29.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (57d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -32.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 19.74 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -53.4709 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 763.97 / 805.8 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.77x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 1073.46 |
| Bollinger Upper | 831.17 |
| SMA(200) | 805.8 |
| SMA(50) | 763.97 |
| SMA(20) | 696.12 |
| Current Price | 553.64 |
| Bollinger Lower | 561.07 |
| 52-Week Low | 537.08 |
| ATR(14) | 30.34 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.44x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.19x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.58x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.77x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 641.77 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 712.84 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 677.30 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 712.84 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 677.30 – 712.84 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 553.64 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 824.39 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 561.07 – 831.17 | KC: 651.5 – 740.74
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 7 | |
| Hidden Bearish | MACD | 7 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 775.22
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-28.6%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CAT
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 253.34B |
| P/E (TTM) | 21.73 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 11.79 |
| EPS | 25.48 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 17.3% |
| Profit Margin | 15.2% |
| ROE | 56.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 210.41 |
| Current Ratio | 1.42 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.64 |
Trading Data
553.64
Open
553.64
Day High
553.64
Day Low
6.38M
Volume (2.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)