Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
58
/ 100
Technical
20
Trend & RS
34
Momentum
0
Fundamental
78
Macro
24
Liquidity
89
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 20.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 34.4 | 10% |
| Momentum | 0.1 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 88.9 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 560.32 |
| Stop Loss | 501.34 (10.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 619.30 (+10.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 678.28 (+21.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 29.49 (5.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 58.98 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 36.8 | -0.53 | |
| Momentum | 0.1 | -2.00 | |
| Quality | 58.9 | +0.36 | |
| Composite | 31.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
5.77
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.7 | 18.0 | +21% above |
| P/B Ratio | 11.8 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
591.64
vs
Market Price
553.64
Upside
+6.9%
| Margin of Safety | +6.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 58,437,371,240 |
| Terminal Value PV | 212,294,125,499 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 270,731,496,739 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,327,599,643 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 17.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.04%
Full Kelly
19.02%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
21.85
RSI(14)
-56.4593
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
48
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-28.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (58d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -30.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 21.85 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -56.4593 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 758.87 / 805.38 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.12x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 1073.46 |
| Bollinger Upper | 823.18 |
| SMA(200) | 805.38 |
| SMA(50) | 758.87 |
| SMA(20) | 684.21 |
| Current Price | 553.64 |
| Bollinger Lower | 545.23 |
| 52-Week Low | 537.08 |
| ATR(14) | 29.49 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.22x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.98x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.62x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.12x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 641.77 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 712.84 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 677.30 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 712.84 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 677.30 – 712.84 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 560.32 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 843.41 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH FADING
BB: 545.23 – 823.18 | KC: 639.19 – 729.22
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 8 | |
| Hidden Bearish | MACD | 8 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 775.08
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-27.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CAT
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 253.34B |
| P/E (TTM) | 21.73 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 11.79 |
| EPS | 25.48 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 17.3% |
| Profit Margin | 15.2% |
| ROE | 56.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 210.41 |
| Current Ratio | 1.42 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.64 |
Trading Data
553.64
Open
553.64
Day High
553.64
Day Low
6.38M
Volume (2.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)