CAVA Group, Inc.

CAVA · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

60.76 USD

0.00 (-1.48%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 22:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 48

Momentum 12

Fundamental 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	10%
Trend & RS	48.5	10%
Momentum	11.9	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	33.9	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	60.76
Stop Loss	54.64 (10.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	66.88 (+10.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	73.00 (+20.1%)

ATR(14)	3.06 (5.0%)
Risk per Share	6.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	5.5	-1.78
Momentum	11.9	-1.52
Quality	41.0	-0.36
Composite	19.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 9.49 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	108.5	18.0	+503% above
P/B Ratio	8.4	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

14.94

Market Price

60.76

Upside

-75.4%

Margin of Safety	-306.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	390,245,489
Terminal Value PV	1,355,168,018
Total Enterprise Value	1,745,413,507

Assumptions

Base FCF	52,329,177
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

37.7%

Full Kelly

18.85%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 57/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

36.9

RSI(14)

-1.7188

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-21.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (58d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-20.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	36.9	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.7188	BEARISH
Ma Cross	68.16 / 72.03	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.62x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	98.79
Bollinger Upper	76.86
SMA(200)	72.03
SMA(50)	68.16
SMA(20)	67.44
Current Price	60.76
Bollinger Lower	58.03
52-Week Low	43.41
ATR(14)	3.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.55x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.57x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	66.31	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	67.90	Base line
Senkou A	67.10	Leading span A
Senkou B	72.94	Leading span B
Cloud	67.10 – 72.94	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	60.76	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	65.23	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH