CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
49
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
62
Momentum
31
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
78
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 61.5 | 30% |
| Momentum | 31.4 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 78.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 60.01 |
| Stop Loss | 53.21 (11.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 66.81 (+11.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 73.61 (+22.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.40 (5.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.80 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 9.7 | -1.61 | |
| Momentum | 28.5 | -0.86 | |
| Quality | 40.2 | -0.39 | |
| Composite | 26.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.1 | 18.0 | +506% above |
| P/B Ratio | 8.2 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
13.13
vs
Market Price
60.01
Upside
-78.1%
| Margin of Safety | -357.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 354,352,234 |
| Terminal Value PV | 1,178,736,970 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 1,533,089,204 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 51,394,728 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 22.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
32.06%
Full Kelly
16.03%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 49/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
57.51
RSI(14)
1.3239
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
78
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+1.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (53d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 57.51 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.3239 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 55.89 / 71.36 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 2.61x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 98.79 |
| Bollinger Upper | 63.01 |
| SMA(200) | 71.36 |
| SMA(50) | 55.89 |
| SMA(20) | 56.09 |
| Current Price | 60.01 |
| Bollinger Lower | 49.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 43.41 |
| ATR(14) | 3.4 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
57%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.69x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.15x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.9x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Upthrust | 2.15x | High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust) |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.61x | High volume, wide spread, but closes mid — absorption of supply |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 57.85 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 57.85 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 57.85 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 60.95 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 57.85 – 60.95 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 60.01 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 54.40 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 49.17 – 63.01 | KC: 51.26 – 60.92
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 9 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 17 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 21 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 68.41
Anchor: 2025-11-20 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-12.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CAVA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 7.01B |
| P/E (TTM) | 109.11 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 8.16 |
| EPS | 0.55 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 22.0% |
| Profit Margin | 4.5% |
| ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 62.51 |
| Current Ratio | 2.44 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.76 |
Trading Data
60.01
Open
60.01
Day High
60.01
Day Low
8.87M
Volume (2.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)