CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
58
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
77
Momentum
56
Fundamental
87
Macro
23
Liquidity
60
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 77.2 | 30% |
| Momentum | 55.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 86.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.3 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 59.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 118.57 |
| Stop Loss | 109.07 (8.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 128.07 (+8.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 137.57 (+16.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.75 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 84.0 | +1.36 | |
| Momentum | 50.5 | +0.02 | |
| Quality | 75.9 | +1.04 | |
| Composite | 70.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.80
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.4 | 18.0 | -54% below |
| P/B Ratio | 3.1 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
267.56
vs
Market Price
118.57
Upside
+125.7%
| Margin of Safety | +55.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 9,181,761,781 |
| Terminal Value PV | 30,604,357,637 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 39,786,119,418 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,686,852,800 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 12.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
37.97%
Full Kelly
18.99%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
49.44
RSI(14)
-0.7148
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
92
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+9.2% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | No (45d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +5.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 49.44 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.7148 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 122.55 / 116.29 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.59x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 141.96 |
| Bollinger Upper | 124.26 |
| SMA(200) | 116.29 |
| SMA(50) | 122.55 |
| SMA(20) | 118.28 |
| Current Price | 118.57 |
| Bollinger Lower | 112.29 |
| 52-Week Low | 75.42 |
| ATR(14) | 4.75 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
54%
Upthrust (potential)
Selling Climax
Acc: 3.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.7x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.99x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.99x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.59x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 117.09 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 117.09 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 117.09 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 126.13 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 117.09 – 126.13 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 118.57 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 114.54 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
1 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 112.29 – 124.26 | KC: 111.45 – 125.1
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 9 | |
| Hidden Bearish | MACD | 9 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 26 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 113.85
Anchor: 2025-12-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+4.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CF
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 17.63B |
| P/E (TTM) | 8.36 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.13 |
| EPS | 14.18 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 12.1% |
| Profit Margin | 27.5% |
| ROE | 30.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 41.08 |
| Current Ratio | 2.98 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.54 |
Trading Data
118.57
Open
118.57
Day High
118.57
Day Low
3.78M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)