CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF · Basic Materials · · USD

124.48 USD

+0.00 (8.22%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:50 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 86

Momentum 89

Fundamental 88

Macro 65

Liquidity 37

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	86.4	30%
Momentum	89.4	15%
Fundamental	88.3	10%
Macro	65.3	20%
Liquidity	36.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	124.48
Stop Loss	111.88 (10.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	137.08 (+10.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	149.68 (+20.2%)

ATR(14)	6.30 (5.1%)
Risk per Share	12.60
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	77.5	+1.10
Momentum	89.4	+1.58
Quality	76.3	+1.05
Composite	81.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.94 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	11.2	18.0	-38% below
P/B Ratio	4.0	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.6%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

279.70

Market Price

124.48

Upside

+124.7%

Margin of Safety	+55.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	9,040,464,516
Terminal Value PV	33,930,213,863
Total Enterprise Value	42,970,678,379

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,364,227,953
Growth Rate (5yr)	19.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.45%

Full Kelly

25.22%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.4

RSI(14)

-0.0679

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+25.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+32.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.4	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0679	BEARISH
Ma Cross	122.59 / 94.57	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.85x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	141.96
Bollinger Upper	129.8
SMA(200)	94.57
SMA(50)	122.59
SMA(20)	121.74
Current Price	124.48
Bollinger Lower	113.69
52-Week Low	75.42
ATR(14)	6.3

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	121.16	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	124.58	Base line
Senkou A	122.87	Leading span A
Senkou B	118.26	Leading span B
Cloud	118.26 – 122.87	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	124.48	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	130.98	Bearish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL