S&P 500 7718.60 -0.38%
NASDAQ 26506.99 -0.29%
TASI 11024.73 -0.40%
Oil (WTI) 91.48 +0.00%
Oil (Brent) 96.28 +0.00%
VIX 15.30 +5.30%
Gold 4476.60 +0.00%
USD/SAR 3.76 +0.02%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF · Basic Materials · · USD
133.35 USD
0.00 (-3.24%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

87
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 99
Momentum 76
Fundamental (0%) 78
Macro 64
Liquidity 49
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 40%
Trend & RS 99.2 20%
Momentum 75.5 20%
Fundamental 77.8 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 49.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 133.35
Stop Loss 122.67 (8.0%)
Target 1 (1:1) 144.03 (+8.0%)
Target 2 (2:1) 154.71 (+16.0%)
ATR(14) 5.34 (4.0%)
Risk per Share 10.68
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 78.7 +1.15
Momentum 75.5 +1.02
Quality 84.7 +1.39
Composite 79.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 9.9 18.0 -45% below
P/B Ratio 3.5 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.8% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
316.70
vs
Market Price
133.35
Upside
+137.5%
Margin of Safety +57.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)10,307,236,064
Terminal Value PV37,622,088,037
Total Enterprise Value47,929,324,101

Assumptions

Base FCF1,632,030,488
Growth Rate (5yr)17.6%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
55.29%
Full Kelly
27.64%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 87/100. Estimated win rate 66%, avg win 10.2%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
60.82
RSI(14)
4.3675
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

97
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+13.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High No (2d since high)
Sector Outperformance +18.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 60.82 NEUTRAL
Macd 4.3675 BULLISH
Ma Cross 120.77 / 107.19 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.01x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High141.96
Bollinger Upper139.87
SMA(200)107.19
SMA(50)120.77
SMA(20)125.69
Current Price133.35
Bollinger Lower111.51
52-Week Low75.42
ATR(14)5.34

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.24x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.45x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.71x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.86x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.01x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 131.73 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 125.07 Base line
Senkou A 128.40 Leading span A
Senkou B 120.73 Leading span B
Cloud 120.73 – 128.40 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 133.35 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 124.55 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 111.51 – 139.87  |  KC: 117.6 – 133.77

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 112.56 Anchor: 2025-12-10 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +18.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/CF

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap20.18B
P/E (TTM)9.89
Forward P/EN/A
P/B3.52
EPS13.48

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth17.6%
Profit Margin27.1%
ROE29.9%
Debt/Equity40.50
Current Ratio4.86
Dividend Yield1.8%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.40

Trading Data

133.35
Open
133.35
Day High
133.35
Day Low
2.62M
Volume (1.0x avg)

Recent News (8)

CF (CF) Up 18.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
Stock Market Screens Like This One Capture Shifts In Market Leadership
Investor's Business Daily · 2026-09-04
Top Analyst Reports for Amazon, AbbVie & Alibaba
Zacks · 2026-09-03
CF Industries Stock Touches New Record on Fertilizer Supply Crunch
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-02
CF Shares Up 15% in 3 Months: Here's What's Driving the Upside
Zacks · 2026-09-01
CF Industries & Partners Break Ground on Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant
Zacks · 2026-08-27
Fertilizer Giants Ready New Plants to Boost U.S. Supplies
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-08-27
The next big oil trade may have nothing to do with oil stocks
TheStreet · 2026-08-23

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —