ConocoPhillips

COP · Energy · · USD

134.26 USD

0.00 (-1.08%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 71

Fundamental 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	98.0	10%
Momentum	71.3	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	51.9	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	134.26
Stop Loss	128.20 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	140.32 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	146.38 (+9.0%)

ATR(14)	3.03 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	6.06
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.2	+1.13
Momentum	71.3	+0.85
Quality	42.3	-0.31
Composite	63.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.13 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	17.8	10.0	+78% above
P/B Ratio	2.5	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.5%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

235.63

Market Price

134.26

Upside

+75.5%

Margin of Safety	+43.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	55,822,810,560
Terminal Value PV	227,250,523,775
Total Enterprise Value	283,073,334,335

Assumptions

Base FCF	7,265,689,073
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.54%

Full Kelly

24.77%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

63.2

RSI(14)

4.3215

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+10.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Energy)
RS New High	No (2d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	63.2	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.3215	BEARISH
Ma Cross	119.64 / 111.36	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.84x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	137.42
Bollinger Upper	139.36
SMA(200)	111.36
SMA(50)	119.64
SMA(20)	130.63
Current Price	134.26
Bollinger Lower	121.89
52-Week Low	85.57
ATR(14)	3.03

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.35x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	132.71	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	125.69	Base line
Senkou A	129.20	Leading span A
Senkou B	119.71	Leading span B
Cloud	119.71 – 129.20	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	134.26	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	119.68	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH