ConocoPhillips
COP · Energy · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
56
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
86
Momentum
62
Fundamental (0%)
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 86.4 | 20% |
| Momentum | 62.3 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 0% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 66.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 135.46 |
| Stop Loss | 126.96 (6.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 143.96 (+6.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 152.46 (+12.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.25 (3.1%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 78.8 | +1.15 | |
| Momentum | 62.3 | +0.49 | |
| Quality | 42.3 | -0.31 | |
| Composite | 61.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.3 | 10.0 | +43% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.6 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Energy median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
295.79
vs
Market Price
135.46
Upside
+118.4%
| Margin of Safety | +54.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 70,073,873,695 |
| Terminal Value PV | 285,265,545,409 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 355,339,419,104 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,120,554,363 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
37.09%
Full Kelly
18.55%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
41.24
RSI(14)
2.1646
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
90
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+20.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Energy) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +5.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 41.24 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.1646 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 136.79 / 121.24 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.39x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 154.28 |
| Bollinger Upper | 155.64 |
| SMA(200) | 121.24 |
| SMA(50) | 136.79 |
| SMA(20) | 144.63 |
| Current Price | 135.46 |
| Bollinger Lower | 133.61 |
| 52-Week Low | 85.59 |
| ATR(14) | 4.25 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
100%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.39x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.71x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.39x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 144.50 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 139.25 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 141.88 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 138.87 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 138.87 – 141.88 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 135.46 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 127.06 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 133.61 – 155.64 | KC: 138.49 – 150.76
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 5 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 27 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 114.56
Anchor: 2025-11-06 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+18.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/COP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 162.73B |
| P/E (TTM) | 14.27 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.57 |
| EPS | 9.49 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 35.5% |
| Profit Margin | 14.4% |
| ROE | 14.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 35.64 |
| Current Ratio | 1.54 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.16 |
Trading Data
135.46
Open
135.46
Day High
135.46
Day Low
9.22M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)