Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST · Consumer Defensive · · USD

912.97 USD

0.00 (-4.21%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 42

Momentum 45

Fundamental 67

Macro 78

Liquidity 84

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	20%
Trend & RS	42.0	30%
Momentum	44.6	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	83.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	912.97
Stop Loss	868.85 (4.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	957.09 (+4.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	1001.21 (+9.7%)

ATR(14)	22.06 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	44.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	4.6	-1.82
Momentum	40.5	-0.38
Quality	40.2	-0.39
Composite	28.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	45.9	18.0	+155% above
P/B Ratio	24.5	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	64.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

543.57

Market Price

912.97

Upside

-40.5%

Margin of Safety	-68.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	49,469,913,534
Terminal Value PV	191,591,106,797
Total Enterprise Value	241,061,020,331

Assumptions

Base FCF	7,060,182,666
Growth Rate (5yr)	21.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

35.22%

Full Kelly

17.61%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 54/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.2%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

34.78

RSI(14)

-14.0594

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-22.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	34.78	NEUTRAL
Macd	-14.0594	BEARISH
Ma Cross	986.96 / 955.14	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	1.7x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	1096.50
Bollinger Upper	994.41
SMA(200)	955.14
SMA(50)	986.96
SMA(20)	955.59
Current Price	912.97
Bollinger Lower	916.77
52-Week Low	844.06
ATR(14)	22.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	938.77	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	952.54	Base line
Senkou A	945.66	Leading span A
Senkou B	1002.09	Leading span B
Cloud	945.66 – 1002.09	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	912.97	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	954.27	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH