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Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST · Consumer Defensive · · USD
910.68 USD
0.00 (-0.25%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 17:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

39
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 41
Momentum 40
Fundamental (0%) 67
Macro 71
Liquidity 46
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 40%
Trend & RS 40.8 20%
Momentum 39.8 20%
Fundamental 66.7 0%
Macro 71.2 15%
Liquidity 46.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 913.09
Stop Loss 871.00 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1) 955.16 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1) 997.25 (+9.2%)
ATR(14) 21.04 (2.3%)
Risk per Share 42.08
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 4.7 -1.81
Momentum 39.8 -0.41
Quality 40.2 -0.39
Composite 28.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 45.8 18.0 +154% above
P/B Ratio 24.4 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 64.0% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
543.57
vs
Market Price
910.68
Upside
-40.3%
Margin of Safety -67.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)49,469,913,372
Terminal Value PV191,591,106,172
Total Enterprise Value241,061,019,544

Assumptions

Base FCF7,060,182,643
Growth Rate (5yr)21.5%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
24.01%
Full Kelly
12.01%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
34.82
RSI(14)
-15.5762
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

39
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-22.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (35d since high)
Sector Outperformance -6.2% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 34.82 NEUTRAL
Macd -15.5762 BEARISH
Ma Cross 985.37 / 955.01 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.08x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1096.50
Bollinger Upper992.97
SMA(200)955.01
SMA(50)985.37
SMA(20)952.08
Current Price910.68
Bollinger Lower911.18
52-Week Low844.06
ATR(14)21.04

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.75x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.63x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 1.75x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Spring 0.08x Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 938.55 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 952.32 Base line
Senkou A 945.43 Leading span A
Senkou B 1001.87 Leading span B
Cloud 945.43 – 1001.87 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 913.09 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 961.83 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 911.18 – 992.97  |  KC: 922.45 – 981.71

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 965.46 Anchor: 2025-12-16 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -5.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/COST

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap403.87B
P/E (TTM)45.76
Forward P/EN/A
P/B24.43
EPS19.90

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth21.5%
Profit Margin3.0%
ROE29.2%
Debt/Equity60.26
Current Ratio1.07
Dividend Yield64.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.87

Trading Data

910.68
Open
910.68
Day High
910.68
Day Low
181.7K
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

Prediction: Can Costco Stock Reach $2,000 by 2030?
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-07-10
US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Edge Higher On Persistent Higher Yield Concerns
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Company News for July 10, 2026
Zacks · 2026-07-10
Costco's June Sales Rose 10.6%, but the Stock Fell 4%. Here's What Spooked Investors.
Motley Fool · 2026-07-10
Why Costco Stock Fell Today
Motley Fool · 2026-07-10
Why Did Costco Stock Fall Today? Because It Had ‘Little Room for Error’
Investopedia · 2026-07-09
Costco shares fall after June sales update, Bank of America remains bullish
Proactive · 2026-07-09
Costco Stock Slides on June Sales Report
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-07-09

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —