Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
70
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
80
Momentum
58
Fundamental
83
Macro
54
Liquidity
66
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 79.5 | 30% |
| Momentum | 57.6 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 65.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 1053.56 |
| Stop Loss | 1013.06 (3.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 1094.06 (+3.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 1134.56 (+7.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 20.25 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 40.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Momentum | 57.6 | +0.30 | |
| Quality | 39.6 | -0.41 | |
| Composite | 32.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
31.85
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.8 | 18.0 | +182% above |
| P/B Ratio | 13.0 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 56.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
376.08
vs
Market Price
1053.56
Upside
-64.3%
| Margin of Safety | -180.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 38,979,716,474 |
| Terminal Value PV | 127,672,147,883 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 166,651,864,357 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 7,359,492,228 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 11.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
45.74%
Full Kelly
22.87%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
67.51
RSI(14)
27.6481
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
73
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+15.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 1d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 67.51 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 27.6481 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 951.19 / 969.93 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.04x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 1096.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 1063.43 |
| SMA(200) | 969.93 |
| SMA(50) | 951.19 |
| SMA(20) | 1003.33 |
| Current Price | 1053.56 |
| Bollinger Lower | 943.22 |
| 52-Week Low | 844.06 |
| ATR(14) | 20.25 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.79x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.07x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 1.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 1030.21 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 994.93 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 1012.57 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 981.67 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 981.67 – 1012.57 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 1053.56 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 919.29 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 943.22 – 1063.43 | KC: 973.03 – 1033.62
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 957.96
Anchor: 2025-12-16 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+10.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 466.86B |
| P/E (TTM) | 50.75 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 13.04 |
| EPS | 20.76 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 11.1% |
| Profit Margin | 3.0% |
| ROE | 28.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 28.44 |
| Current Ratio | 1.06 |
| Dividend Yield | 56.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.85 |
Trading Data
1053.56
Open
1053.56
Day High
1053.56
Day Low
2.49M
Volume (1.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)