Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST · Consumer Defensive · · USD

910.40 USD

0.00 (-0.28%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 41

Momentum 39

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 65

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	40%
Trend & RS	40.8	20%
Momentum	39.4	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	46.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	910.29
Stop Loss	868.21 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	952.37 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	994.45 (+9.2%)

ATR(14)	21.04 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	42.08
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	4.1	-1.84
Momentum	39.4	-0.43
Quality	40.2	-0.39
Composite	27.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 28.43 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	45.8	18.0	+154% above
P/B Ratio	24.4	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	64.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

543.57

Market Price

910.40

Upside

-40.3%

Margin of Safety	-67.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	49,469,912,788
Terminal Value PV	191,591,103,907
Total Enterprise Value	241,061,016,695

Assumptions

Base FCF	7,060,182,560
Growth Rate (5yr)	21.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

28.04%

Full Kelly

14.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

34.18

RSI(14)

-15.7992

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-22.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (35d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	34.18	NEUTRAL
Macd	-15.7992	BEARISH
Ma Cross	985.32 / 955.0	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	0.2x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	1096.50
Bollinger Upper	993.41
SMA(200)	955.0
SMA(50)	985.32
SMA(20)	951.94
Current Price	910.40
Bollinger Lower	910.46
52-Week Low	844.06
ATR(14)	21.04

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Spring	0.2x	Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	938.55	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	952.32	Base line
Senkou A	945.43	Leading span A
Senkou B	1001.87	Leading span B
Cloud	945.43 – 1001.87	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	910.29	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	961.83	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH