Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST · Consumer Defensive · · USD

915.74 USD

0.00 (-1.04%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 20

Trend & RS 32

Momentum 40

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 61

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	20.0	40%
Trend & RS	31.6	20%
Momentum	39.7	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	61.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	915.74
Stop Loss	881.32 (3.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	950.16 (+3.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	984.58 (+7.5%)

ATR(14)	17.21 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	34.42
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	3.7	-1.85
Momentum	39.7	-0.41
Quality	40.2	-0.39
Composite	27.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 28.56 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	46.1	18.0	+156% above
P/B Ratio	24.6	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	64.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

542.75

Market Price

915.74

Upside

-40.7%

Margin of Safety	-68.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	49,395,335,030
Terminal Value PV	191,302,273,101
Total Enterprise Value	240,697,608,131

Assumptions

Base FCF	7,049,539,068
Growth Rate (5yr)	21.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

20.52%

Full Kelly

10.26%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 35/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.15

RSI(14)

-5.7931

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-10.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-8.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.15	NEUTRAL
Macd	-5.7931	BEARISH
Ma Cross	943.01 / 957.9	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	1.17x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	1096.50
Bollinger Upper	975.64
SMA(200)	957.9
SMA(50)	943.01
SMA(20)	947.19
Current Price	915.74
Bollinger Lower	918.74
52-Week Low	844.06
ATR(14)	17.21

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.35x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.22x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.17x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	941.79	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	946.62	Base line
Senkou A	944.21	Leading span A
Senkou B	946.66	Leading span B
Cloud	944.21 – 946.66	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	915.74	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	951.89	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH