CSX Corporation
CSX · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
69
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
84
Momentum
67
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
75
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 83.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 67.3 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 75.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 50.83 |
| Stop Loss | 48.41 (4.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 53.25 (+4.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 55.67 (+9.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.21 (2.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.42 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 44.5 | -0.22 | |
| Momentum | 61.2 | +0.45 | |
| Quality | 50.2 | +0.01 | |
| Composite | 52.0 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.5 | 18.0 | +47% above |
| P/B Ratio | 6.5 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
36.08
vs
Market Price
50.83
Upside
-29.0%
| Margin of Safety | -40.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 15,445,723,517 |
| Terminal Value PV | 51,393,915,958 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 66,839,639,475 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,845,401,641 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 12.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
45.2%
Full Kelly
22.6%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 69/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.1%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
55.06
RSI(14)
0.9447
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
84
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+6.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +3.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 55.06 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.9447 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 48.83 / 45.74 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.68x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 53.60 |
| Bollinger Upper | 53.74 |
| SMA(200) | 45.74 |
| SMA(50) | 48.83 |
| SMA(20) | 50.01 |
| Current Price | 50.83 |
| Bollinger Lower | 46.29 |
| 52-Week Low | 33.63 |
| ATR(14) | 1.21 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.42x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.36x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.24x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.68x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 51.50 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 49.38 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 50.44 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 49.34 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 49.34 – 50.44 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 50.83 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 46.54 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 46.29 – 53.74 | KC: 48.24 – 51.78
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 43.74
Anchor: 2025-11-20 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+16.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 94.16B |
| P/E (TTM) | 26.47 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.51 |
| EPS | 1.92 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 12.0% |
| Profit Margin | 24.0% |
| ROE | 26.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 135.17 |
| Current Ratio | 0.84 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.11 |
Trading Data
50.83
Open
50.83
Day High
50.83
Day Low
19.81M
Volume (1.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)