CSX Corporation

CSX · Industrials · · USD

49.41 USD

+0.00 (0.86%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 74

Momentum 68

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	73.9	30%
Momentum	67.7	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	47.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	49.41
Stop Loss	47.33 (4.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	51.49 (+4.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	53.57 (+8.4%)

ATR(14)	1.04 (2.1%)
Risk per Share	2.08
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	42.1	-0.32
Momentum	67.7	+0.71
Quality	47.4	-0.10
Composite	52.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	28.7	18.0	+60% above
P/B Ratio	6.5	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.1%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

29.91

Market Price

49.41

Upside

-39.5%

Margin of Safety	-65.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	13,136,116,781
Terminal Value PV	42,265,436,677
Total Enterprise Value	55,401,553,458

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,549,005,347
Growth Rate (5yr)	10.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

41.52%

Full Kelly

20.76%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 63/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.79

RSI(14)

-0.1498

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+0.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (30d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+5.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.79	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.1498	BEARISH
Ma Cross	50.02 / 42.92	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.85x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	53.60
Bollinger Upper	52.15
SMA(200)	42.92
SMA(50)	50.02
SMA(20)	50.31
Current Price	49.41
Bollinger Lower	48.48
52-Week Low	31.80
ATR(14)	1.04

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	49.92	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	49.92	Base line
Senkou A	49.92	Leading span A
Senkou B	49.63	Leading span B
Cloud	49.63 – 49.92	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	49.41	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	50.26	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH