Deere & Company

DE · Industrials · · USD

596.36 USD

+0.00 (0.58%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 80

Momentum 65

Fundamental 67

Macro 65

Liquidity 42

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	80.3	30%
Momentum	65.0	15%
Fundamental	67.2	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	42.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	595.15
Stop Loss	558.53 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	631.77 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	668.39 (+12.3%)

ATR(14)	18.31 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	36.62
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	34.6	-0.61
Momentum	65.0	+0.60
Quality	48.6	-0.06
Composite	49.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.94 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	33.8	18.0	+88% above
P/B Ratio	5.9	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.1%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

218.13

Market Price

596.36

Upside

-63.4%

Margin of Safety	-173.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,713,226,880
Terminal Value PV	43,205,765,794
Total Enterprise Value	58,918,992,674

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,818,236,538
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

46.16%

Full Kelly

23.08%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.48

RSI(14)

8.2797

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-14.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-7.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.48	NEUTRAL
Macd	8.2797	BEARISH
Ma Cross	579.87 / 534.24	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.08x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	674.19
Bollinger Upper	643.55
SMA(200)	534.24
SMA(50)	579.87
SMA(20)	601.74
Current Price	596.36
Bollinger Lower	559.94
52-Week Low	433.00
ATR(14)	18.31

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Demand	0.08x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	614.88	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	597.09	Base line
Senkou A	605.98	Leading span A
Senkou B	576.40	Leading span B
Cloud	576.40 – 605.98	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	595.15	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	586.77	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL