D.R. Horton, Inc.

DHI · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

142.75 USD

0.00 (-1.15%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 34

Momentum 45

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 45

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	33.5	20%
Momentum	45.3	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	45.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	142.75
Stop Loss	134.99 (5.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	150.51 (+5.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	158.27 (+10.9%)

ATR(14)	3.88 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	7.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.7	+1.15
Momentum	45.3	-0.19
Quality	61.2	+0.45
Composite	61.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.91 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	13.6	18.0	-24% below
P/B Ratio	1.7	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	1.3%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

147.33

Market Price

142.75

Upside

+3.2%

Margin of Safety	+3.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	10,505,704,999
Terminal Value PV	30,703,255,258
Total Enterprise Value	41,208,960,257

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,347,253,033
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

22.84%

Full Kelly

11.42%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 38/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.96

RSI(14)

-1.4541

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-6.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.96	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.4541	BEARISH
Ma Cross	149.07 / 149.06	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.91x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	184.55
Bollinger Upper	152.97
SMA(200)	149.06
SMA(50)	149.07
SMA(20)	147.03
Current Price	142.75
Bollinger Lower	141.08
52-Week Low	131.75
ATR(14)	3.88

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.42x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.97x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	146.28	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	147.71	Base line
Senkou A	147.00	Leading span A
Senkou B	154.35	Leading span B
Cloud	147.00 – 154.35	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	142.75	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	142.63	Bullish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH