D.R. Horton, Inc.
DHI · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
60
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
61
Momentum
70
Fundamental
67
Macro
24
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 61.4 | 10% |
| Momentum | 70.0 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 63.5 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 157.63 |
| Stop Loss | 146.41 (7.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 168.85 (+7.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 180.07 (+14.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.61 (3.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.22 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 81.1 | +1.24 | |
| Momentum | 70.0 | +0.80 | |
| Quality | 60.6 | +0.42 | |
| Composite | 70.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.6 | 18.0 | -13% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.9 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
124.81
vs
Market Price
157.63
Upside
-20.8%
| Margin of Safety | -26.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 9,034,633,669 |
| Terminal Value PV | 24,842,018,087 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 33,876,651,756 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,195,371,368 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.51%
Full Kelly
19.75%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
64.48
RSI(14)
3.7786
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
53
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+9.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 64.48 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.7786 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 141.12 / 147.02 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.32x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 170.79 |
| Bollinger Upper | 157.91 |
| SMA(200) | 147.02 |
| SMA(50) | 141.12 |
| SMA(20) | 143.43 |
| Current Price | 157.63 |
| Bollinger Lower | 128.95 |
| 52-Week Low | 130.40 |
| ATR(14) | 5.61 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.89x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.05x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.34x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.32x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 151.11 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 146.03 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 148.57 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 146.03 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 146.03 – 148.57 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 157.63 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 137.06 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 128.95 – 157.91 | KC: 135.38 – 151.48
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 145.61
Anchor: 2026-10-14 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+8.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/DHI
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 42.79B |
| P/E (TTM) | 15.59 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.85 |
| EPS | 10.11 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -3.2% |
| Profit Margin | 8.7% |
| ROE | 12.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 25.53 |
| Current Ratio | 4.30 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.37 |
Trading Data
157.63
Open
157.63
Day High
157.63
Day Low
4.21M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)