The Walt Disney Company

DIS · Communication Services · · USD

105.31 USD

0.00 (-1.73%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 67

Momentum 58

Fundamental 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	67.4	10%
Momentum	58.1	5%
Fundamental	66.7	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	48.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	105.31
Stop Loss	100.77 (4.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	109.85 (+4.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	114.39 (+8.6%)

ATR(14)	2.27 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	4.54
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	75.3	+1.01
Momentum	58.1	+0.32
Quality	26.5	-0.94
Composite	53.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	21.7	18.0	+21% above
P/B Ratio	1.7	3.0	Below
Dividend Yield	1.4%	1.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

73.51

Market Price

105.31

Upside

-30.2%

Margin of Safety	-43.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	31,523,185,118
Terminal Value PV	95,406,851,596
Total Enterprise Value	126,930,036,714

Assumptions

Base FCF	6,699,544,590
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.9%

Full Kelly

19.95%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

50.52

RSI(14)

1.6548

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+1.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Communication Servic)
RS New High	No (8d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+3.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	50.52	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.6548	BEARISH
Ma Cross	101.18 / 103.29	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.8x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	119.05
Bollinger Upper	111.37
SMA(200)	103.29
SMA(50)	101.18
SMA(20)	106.58
Current Price	105.31
Bollinger Lower	101.8
52-Week Low	92.19
ATR(14)	2.27

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	108.38	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	103.73	Base line
Senkou A	106.06	Leading span A
Senkou B	102.18	Leading span B
Cloud	102.18 – 106.06	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	105.31	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	96.19	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL