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Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR · Consumer Defensive · · USD
131.42 USD
+0.00 (0.29%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 22:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

66
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 92
Momentum 71
Fundamental 71
Macro 64
Liquidity 37
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 10%
Trend & RS 91.5 10%
Momentum 70.7 5%
Fundamental 71.4 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 36.9 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 131.42
Stop Loss 122.18 (7.0%)
Target 1 (1:1) 140.66 (+7.0%)
Target 2 (2:1) 149.90 (+14.1%)
ATR(14) 4.62 (3.5%)
Risk per Share 9.24
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 55.8 +0.23
Momentum 70.7 +0.83
Quality 51.4 +0.06
Composite 59.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.36 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 16.1 18.0 -10% below
P/B Ratio 7.2 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value
124.72
vs
Market Price
131.42
Upside
-5.1%
Margin of Safety -5.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)5,795,272,909
Terminal Value PV17,606,783,489
Total Enterprise Value23,402,056,398

Assumptions

Base FCF1,224,850,592
Growth Rate (5yr)7.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
43.16%
Full Kelly
21.58%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
54.17
RSI(14)
1.2204
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

78
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+16.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance +18.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 54.17 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.2204 BEARISH
Ma Cross 127.31 / 117.11 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.53x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High142.40
Bollinger Upper135.34
SMA(200)117.11
SMA(50)127.31
SMA(20)130.4
Current Price131.42
Bollinger Lower125.47
52-Week Low84.71
ATR(14)4.62

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.53x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.94x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.54x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.73x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 No Demand 0.53x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 127.14 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 127.59 Base line
Senkou A 127.36 Leading span A
Senkou B 125.53 Leading span B
Cloud 125.53 – 127.36 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 131.42 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 127.21 Bullish
Alignment Score 3/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 12 bars Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 125.47 – 135.34  |  KC: 123.64 – 137.17

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 12
Regular Bearish RSI 21

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 112.68 Anchor: 2025-10-07 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +16.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/DLTR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap24.66B
P/E (TTM)16.11
Forward P/EN/A
P/B7.20
EPS8.16

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth7.0%
Profit Margin8.0%
ROE46.0%
Debt/Equity223.94
Current Ratio1.13
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.66

Trading Data

131.42
Open
131.42
Day High
131.42
Day Low
1.21M
Volume (0.4x avg)

Recent News (8)

S&P 500 Companies Snag More Than $10 Billion in Tariff Refunds. What Goes to You.
Barrons.com · 2026-09-06
Dollar General (DG) or Dollar Tree (DLTR): Which Stock Is Better?
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-05
Cramer Says Costco at 49 Times Earnings Is the Mistake Loyal Shoppers Keep Making
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Uneven Investor Sentiment Toward Hardline Retailers Could Persist Amid Macro Headwinds, UBS Says
MT Newswires · 2026-09-04
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Cuts Sales Outlook as Second-Quarter Revenue Misses Views
MT Newswires · 2026-09-02
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Could Be 29% Undervalued After Raised Outlook
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-02
Dollar stores benefit as shoppers remain under pressure
Grocery Dive · 2026-09-02
Dollar General and Dollar Tree send message to Kroger and Publix
TheStreet · 2026-09-01

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —