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Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR · Consumer Defensive · · USD
125.28 USD
+0.00 (3.61%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 19:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

62
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 89
Momentum 60
Fundamental 71
Macro 71
Liquidity 34
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 10%
Trend & RS 88.8 10%
Momentum 59.7 5%
Fundamental 70.6 40%
Macro 71.2 15%
Liquidity 33.8 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 124.69
Stop Loss 115.47 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 133.91 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 143.13 (+14.8%)
ATR(14) 4.61 (3.7%)
Risk per Share 9.22
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 53.9 +0.16
Momentum 59.7 +0.39
Quality 46.6 -0.14
Composite 53.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.28 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 20.1 18.0 +12% above
P/B Ratio 6.9 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
96.03
vs
Market Price
125.28
Upside
-23.3%
Margin of Safety -30.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,556,897,621
Terminal Value PV13,897,156,180
Total Enterprise Value18,454,053,801

Assumptions

Base FCF957,798,147
Growth Rate (5yr)7.2%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
41.07%
Full Kelly
20.54%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
62.95
RSI(14)
4.4947
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

96
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+10.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance +26.4% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 62.95 NEUTRAL
Macd 4.4947 BEARISH
Ma Cross 106.72 / 110.91 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.14x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High142.40
Bollinger Upper128.81
SMA(200)110.91
SMA(50)106.72
SMA(20)118.07
Current Price125.28
Bollinger Lower107.33
52-Week Low84.71
ATR(14)4.61

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 1.22x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.89x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.44x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Normal 0.14x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 122.69 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 115.92 Base line
Senkou A 119.30 Leading span A
Senkou B 106.25 Leading span B
Cloud 106.25 – 119.30 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 124.69 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 112.50 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 107.33 – 128.81  |  KC: 110.98 – 125.16

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 6

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 110.53 Anchor: 2025-10-07 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +12.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/DLTR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap24.08B
P/E (TTM)20.11
Forward P/EN/A
P/B6.91
EPS6.23

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth7.2%
Profit Margin6.5%
ROE34.0%
Debt/Equity216.52
Current Ratio1.16
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.65

Trading Data

125.28
Open
125.28
Day High
125.28
Day Low
489.1K
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

Enlarged Buyback And Upgraded Ratings Could Be A Game Changer For Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Own Costco For Its Value Focus? Dollar Tree Is Making A Case.
Trefis · 2026-07-09
Magnificent Seven’s Weakness Is Starting to Become a Problem for Wall Street
Bloomberg · 2026-07-09
DLTR Stock: Dollar Tree Wins Dual Wall Street Upgrades As Analysts See Earnings Upside
Stocktwits · 2026-07-09
2 Analysts Just Upgraded Dollar Tree Stock. Here's Why.
Barchart · 2026-07-08
Dollar Tree upgraded, PayPal initiated: Wall Street's top analyst calls
The Fly · 2026-07-08
Dollar Tree upgraded on earnings upside potential despite ongoing traffic woes
Investing.com · 2026-07-08
Here Are Wednesday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Alcoa, Commercial Metals, DTE Energy, Dollar Tree, Occidental Petroleum, PayPal, Pinterest, Snap, Travelers, and More
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —