Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR · Consumer Defensive · · USD

124.44 USD

+0.00 (2.91%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 89

Momentum 59

Fundamental 56

Macro 65

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	88.8	30%
Momentum	58.7	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	33.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	123.99
Stop Loss	114.93 (7.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	133.05 (+7.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	142.11 (+14.6%)

ATR(14)	4.53 (3.6%)
Risk per Share	9.06
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	49.9	-0.00
Momentum	58.7	+0.35
Quality	46.6	-0.14
Composite	51.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.0	18.0	+11% above
P/B Ratio	6.9	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

96.03

Market Price

124.44

Upside

-22.8%

Margin of Safety	-29.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,556,897,586
Terminal Value PV	13,897,156,067
Total Enterprise Value	18,454,053,653

Assumptions

Base FCF	957,798,139
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

43.1%

Full Kelly

21.55%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

62.21

RSI(14)

4.4388

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+10.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+25.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	62.21	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.4388	BEARISH
Ma Cross	106.71 / 110.91	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.06x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	142.40
Bollinger Upper	128.69
SMA(200)	110.91
SMA(50)	106.71
SMA(20)	118.04
Current Price	124.44
Bollinger Lower	107.38
52-Week Low	84.71
ATR(14)	4.53

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.44x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.06x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	122.69	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	115.92	Base line
Senkou A	119.30	Leading span A
Senkou B	106.25	Leading span B
Cloud	106.25 – 119.30	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	123.99	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	112.50	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH