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Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR · Consumer Defensive · · USD
124.44 USD
+0.00 (2.91%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 18:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

67
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 89
Momentum 59
Fundamental 70
Macro 65
Liquidity 34
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 20%
Trend & RS 88.8 30%
Momentum 59.3 15%
Fundamental 70.5 10%
Macro 65.2 20%
Liquidity 33.8 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 124.36
Stop Loss 115.20 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 133.52 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 142.68 (+14.7%)
ATR(14) 4.58 (3.7%)
Risk per Share 9.16
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 54.2 +0.17
Momentum 59.3 +0.37
Quality 46.6 -0.14
Composite 53.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.27 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 20.0 18.0 +11% above
P/B Ratio 6.9 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
96.03
vs
Market Price
124.44
Upside
-22.8%
Margin of Safety -29.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,556,897,621
Terminal Value PV13,897,156,180
Total Enterprise Value18,454,053,801

Assumptions

Base FCF957,798,147
Growth Rate (5yr)7.2%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
44.1%
Full Kelly
22.05%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
62.61
RSI(14)
4.4683
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

96
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+10.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance +26.1% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 62.61 NEUTRAL
Macd 4.4683 BEARISH
Ma Cross 106.71 / 110.91 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.09x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High142.40
Bollinger Upper128.75
SMA(200)110.91
SMA(50)106.71
SMA(20)118.06
Current Price124.44
Bollinger Lower107.36
52-Week Low84.71
ATR(14)4.58

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 1.22x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.44x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 No Supply 0.09x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 122.69 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 115.92 Base line
Senkou A 119.30 Leading span A
Senkou B 106.25 Leading span B
Cloud 106.25 – 119.30 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 124.36 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 112.50 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 107.36 – 128.75  |  KC: 111.0 – 125.11

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 6

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 110.53 Anchor: 2025-10-07 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +12.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/DLTR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap23.91B
P/E (TTM)19.97
Forward P/EN/A
P/B6.86
EPS6.23

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth7.2%
Profit Margin6.5%
ROE34.0%
Debt/Equity216.52
Current Ratio1.16
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.65

Trading Data

124.44
Open
124.44
Day High
124.44
Day Low
246.9K
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

Enlarged Buyback And Upgraded Ratings Could Be A Game Changer For Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-10
Own Costco For Its Value Focus? Dollar Tree Is Making A Case.
Trefis · 2026-07-09
Magnificent Seven’s Weakness Is Starting to Become a Problem for Wall Street
Bloomberg · 2026-07-09
DLTR Stock: Dollar Tree Wins Dual Wall Street Upgrades As Analysts See Earnings Upside
Stocktwits · 2026-07-09
2 Analysts Just Upgraded Dollar Tree Stock. Here's Why.
Barchart · 2026-07-08
Dollar Tree upgraded, PayPal initiated: Wall Street's top analyst calls
The Fly · 2026-07-08
Dollar Tree upgraded on earnings upside potential despite ongoing traffic woes
Investing.com · 2026-07-08
Here Are Wednesday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Alcoa, Commercial Metals, DTE Energy, Dollar Tree, Occidental Petroleum, PayPal, Pinterest, Snap, Travelers, and More
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —