Dollar Tree, Inc.
DLTR · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
78
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
75
Momentum
79
Fundamental (0%)
72
Macro
24
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 74.6 | 20% |
| Momentum | 79.1 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 72.3 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 63.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 135.49 |
| Stop Loss | 124.63 (8.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 146.35 (+8.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 157.21 (+16.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.43 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 10.86 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 53.4 | +0.14 | |
| Momentum | 79.1 | +1.16 | |
| Quality | 51.4 | +0.06 | |
| Composite | 61.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.45
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.8 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 7.6 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
125.49
vs
Market Price
137.94
Upside
-9.0%
| Margin of Safety | -9.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,830,783,160 |
| Terminal Value PV | 17,714,668,202 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 23,545,451,362 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,232,355,804 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
50.11%
Full Kelly
25.06%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
57.73
RSI(14)
5.0007
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
61
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+9.7% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (2d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -3.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 57.73 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 5.0007 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 122.42 / 116.8 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 148.54 |
| Bollinger Upper | 143.72 |
| SMA(200) | 116.8 |
| SMA(50) | 122.42 |
| SMA(20) | 128.45 |
| Current Price | 137.94 |
| Bollinger Lower | 113.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 85.88 |
| ATR(14) | 5.43 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.89x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.94x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Supply | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 135.56 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 129.83 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 132.69 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 129.83 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 129.83 – 132.69 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 135.49 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 112.16 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 113.17 – 143.72 | KC: 120.44 – 136.45
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | MACD | 9 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 118.16
Anchor: 2026-05-13 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+14.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/DLTR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 25.88B |
| P/E (TTM) | 16.80 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 7.56 |
| EPS | 8.21 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 7.0% |
| Profit Margin | 8.0% |
| ROE | 46.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 223.94 |
| Current Ratio | 1.13 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.69 |
Trading Data
137.94
Open
137.94
Day High
137.94
Day Low
3.86M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)