Essex Property Trust, Inc.

ESS · Real Estate · · USD

268.77 USD

+0.00 (1.98%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:51 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 66

Momentum 64

Fundamental 47

Macro 65

Liquidity 40

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	65.9	30%
Momentum	63.5	15%
Fundamental	46.9	10%
Macro	65.3	20%
Liquidity	40.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	268.77
Stop Loss	257.95 (4.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	279.59 (+4.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	290.41 (+8.1%)

ATR(14)	5.41 (2.0%)
Risk per Share	10.82
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	51.7	+0.07
Momentum	63.5	+0.54
Quality	39.8	-0.41
Composite	51.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.91 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	30.2	18.0	+68% above
P/B Ratio	3.2	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.8%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

132.64

Market Price

268.77

Upside

-50.6%

Margin of Safety	-102.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	2,129,124,017
Terminal Value PV	6,394,677,202
Total Enterprise Value	8,523,801,219

Assumptions

Base FCF	457,543,582
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

42.09%

Full Kelly

21.05%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

65.22

RSI(14)

4.752

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-1.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-1.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	65.22	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.752	BULLISH
Ma Cross	251.96 / 253.51	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.9x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	294.09
Bollinger Upper	273.1
SMA(200)	253.51
SMA(50)	251.96
SMA(20)	259.75
Current Price	268.77
Bollinger Lower	246.39
52-Week Low	238.46
ATR(14)	5.41

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.56x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	264.42	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	258.05	Base line
Senkou A	261.23	Leading span A
Senkou B	253.13	Leading span B
Cloud	253.13 – 261.23	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	268.77	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	247.71	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH