Essex Property Trust, Inc.
ESS · Real Estate · · USDFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
46
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
66
Momentum
48
Fundamental
44
Macro
22
Liquidity
52
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 66.3 | 10% |
| Momentum | 48.2 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 40% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 51.6 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 271.34 |
| Stop Loss | 258.94 (4.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 283.74 (+4.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 296.14 (+9.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.20 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 12.40 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 35.3 | -0.59 | |
| Momentum | 48.2 | -0.07 | |
| Quality | 29.4 | -0.83 | |
| Composite | 37.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.3 | 18.0 | +180% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.3 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
67.12
vs
Market Price
271.34
Upside
-75.3%
| Margin of Safety | -304.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,230,004,455 |
| Terminal Value PV | 3,396,217,692 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 4,626,222,147 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 297,209,729 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
29.13%
Full Kelly
14.56%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
51.14
RSI(14)
-1.0449
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
65
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+0.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate) |
| RS New High | No (52d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 51.14 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.0449 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 271.4 / 265.94 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.01x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 303.35 |
| Bollinger Upper | 280.68 |
| SMA(200) | 265.94 |
| SMA(50) | 271.4 |
| SMA(20) | 270.51 |
| Current Price | 271.34 |
| Bollinger Lower | 260.35 |
| 52-Week Low | 238.46 |
| ATR(14) | 6.2 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.53x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.24x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.01x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.5x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.01x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 270.06 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 272.73 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 271.40 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 275.42 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 271.40 – 275.42 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 271.34 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 269.51 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 260.35 – 280.68 | KC: 261.12 – 279.9
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 14 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 18 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 22 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 28 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 271.90
Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-0.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ESS
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 18.70B |
| P/E (TTM) | 50.34 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.29 |
| EPS | 5.39 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 2.2% |
| Profit Margin | 17.5% |
| ROE | 6.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 121.00 |
| Current Ratio | 0.41 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.71 |
Trading Data
271.34
Open
271.34
Day High
271.34
Day Low
599.6K
Volume (1.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)