Essex Property Trust, Inc.

ESS · Real Estate · · USD

278.61 USD

0.00 (-0.01%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 54

Momentum 58

Fundamental (0%) 42

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	54.0	20%
Momentum	58.2	20%
Fundamental	42.1	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	45.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	278.61
Stop Loss	268.57 (3.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	288.65 (+3.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	298.69 (+7.2%)

ATR(14)	5.02 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	10.04
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	39.9	-0.41
Momentum	58.2	+0.33
Quality	32.4	-0.70
Composite	43.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.99 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	43.5	18.0	+142% above
P/B Ratio	3.4	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.7%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

82.99

Market Price

278.61

Upside

-70.2%

Margin of Safety	-235.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,398,802,102
Terminal Value PV	3,934,749,723
Total Enterprise Value	5,333,551,825

Assumptions

Base FCF	329,568,555
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

35.64%

Full Kelly

17.82%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 54/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

40.88

RSI(14)

-2.2902

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-6.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	40.88	NEUTRAL
Macd	-2.2902	BEARISH
Ma Cross	289.2 / 263.71	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.9x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	303.35
Bollinger Upper	293.51
SMA(200)	263.71
SMA(50)	289.2
SMA(20)	284.39
Current Price	278.61
Bollinger Lower	275.27
52-Week Low	238.46
ATR(14)	5.02

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.34x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	284.81	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	284.86	Base line
Senkou A	284.84	Leading span A
Senkou B	287.97	Leading span B
Cloud	284.84 – 287.97	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	278.61	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	284.14	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH