Fastenal Company
FAST · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
73
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
86
Momentum
68
Fundamental
89
Macro
22
Liquidity
68
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 85.5 | 30% |
| Momentum | 68.4 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 67.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 52.90 |
| Stop Loss | 50.18 (5.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 55.62 (+5.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 58.34 (+10.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.36 (2.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.72 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5.4 | -1.78 | |
| Momentum | 68.4 | +0.74 | |
| Quality | 79.9 | +1.20 | |
| Composite | 51.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
85.28
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.0 | 18.0 | +139% above |
| P/B Ratio | 14.6 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
26.60
vs
Market Price
52.90
Upside
-49.7%
| Margin of Safety | -98.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 6,738,529,485 |
| Terminal Value PV | 23,782,669,218 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 30,521,198,703 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,128,944,664 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 15.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
47.34%
Full Kelly
23.67%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 73/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
59.73
RSI(14)
0.6683
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
63
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+7.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +4.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 59.73 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.6683 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 50.4 / 46.92 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.35x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 54.96 |
| Bollinger Upper | 53.39 |
| SMA(200) | 46.92 |
| SMA(50) | 50.4 |
| SMA(20) | 51.72 |
| Current Price | 52.90 |
| Bollinger Lower | 50.05 |
| 52-Week Low | 38.97 |
| ATR(14) | 1.36 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.71x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.22x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.35x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 52.86 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 51.01 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 51.94 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 51.01 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 51.01 – 51.94 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 52.90 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 49.98 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
17 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 50.05 – 53.39 | KC: 49.46 – 53.98
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 6 | |
| Hidden Bullish | MACD | 8 | |
| Regular Bearish | MACD | 11 | |
| Hidden Bullish | MACD | 16 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 45.85
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+15.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/FAST
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 60.69B |
| P/E (TTM) | 43.01 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 14.63 |
| EPS | 1.23 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 15.5% |
| Profit Margin | 15.6% |
| ROE | 35.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 10.89 |
| Current Ratio | 3.93 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.66 |
Trading Data
52.90
Open
52.90
Day High
52.90
Day Low
11.92M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)