Fastenal Company

FAST · Industrials · · USD

49.54 USD

0.00 (-0.12%)

● Updated 2026-09-08 21:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 92

Momentum 59

Fundamental 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	91.5	30%
Momentum	59.0	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.7	20%
Liquidity	37.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	49.48
Stop Loss	47.30 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	51.66 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	53.84 (+8.8%)

ATR(14)	1.09 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	2.18
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	8.5	-1.66
Momentum	59.0	+0.36
Quality	79.9	+1.19
Composite	49.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	42.3	18.0	+135% above
P/B Ratio	14.0	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.9%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

24.51

Market Price

49.54

Upside

-50.5%

Margin of Safety	-102.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,273,879,019
Terminal Value PV	21,853,588,065
Total Enterprise Value	28,127,467,084

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,074,057,777
Growth Rate (5yr)	14.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.05%

Full Kelly

24.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 74/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.01

RSI(14)

0.0607

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+4.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (19d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+8.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.01	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0607	BEARISH
Ma Cross	48.63 / 45.03	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.32x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	52.92
Bollinger Upper	52.91
SMA(200)	45.03
SMA(50)	48.63
SMA(20)	50.54
Current Price	49.54
Bollinger Lower	48.17
52-Week Low	38.97
ATR(14)	1.09

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08	No Supply	0.32x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	49.59	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	49.95	Base line
Senkou A	49.77	Leading span A
Senkou B	48.37	Leading span B
Cloud	48.37 – 49.77	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	49.48	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	48.11	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL