Garmin Ltd.

GRMN · Technology · · USD

278.59 USD

+0.00 (0.56%)

● Updated 2026-09-08 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 97

Momentum 70

Fundamental 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	97.2	30%
Momentum	69.8	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.7	20%
Liquidity	38.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	278.39
Stop Loss	264.65 (4.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	292.13 (+4.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	305.87 (+9.9%)

ATR(14)	6.87 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	13.74
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	44.9	-0.20
Momentum	69.8	+0.79
Quality	68.3	+0.73
Composite	61.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	28.7	28.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	6.0	6.0	Inline
Dividend Yield	1.5%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

177.89

Market Price

278.59

Upside

-36.1%

Margin of Safety	-56.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	7,991,699,687
Terminal Value PV	26,314,253,965
Total Enterprise Value	34,305,953,652

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,496,535,725
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.0%

Full Kelly

25.0%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.21

RSI(14)

-0.914

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+14.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (20d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+25.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.21	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.914	BEARISH
Ma Cross	273.43 / 237.73	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.43x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	314.28
Bollinger Upper	317.05
SMA(200)	237.73
SMA(50)	273.43
SMA(20)	292.1
Current Price	278.59
Bollinger Lower	267.15
52-Week Low	186.67
ATR(14)	6.87

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.97x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08	Normal	0.43x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	279.81	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	291.14	Base line
Senkou A	285.48	Leading span A
Senkou B	271.39	Leading span B
Cloud	271.39 – 285.48	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	278.39	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	304.76	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL