HCA Healthcare, Inc.

HCA · Healthcare · · USD

426.37 USD

0.00 (-2.03%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:49 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 54

Momentum 27

Fundamental 33

Macro 65

Liquidity 69

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	54.1	30%
Momentum	27.3	15%
Fundamental	33.3	10%
Macro	65.1	20%
Liquidity	69.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	426.37
Stop Loss	400.35 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	452.39 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	478.41 (+12.2%)

ATR(14)	13.01 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	26.02
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.5	+1.14
Momentum	24.8	-1.01
Quality	23.7	-1.05
Composite	42.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 3 /9 — Weak

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.7	22.0	-33% below
P/B Ratio	-15.1	4.0	Inline
Dividend Yield	73.0%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

395.86

Market Price

426.37

Upside

-7.2%

Margin of Safety	-7.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	22,621,056,520
Terminal Value PV	65,196,704,498
Total Enterprise Value	87,817,761,018

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,153,782,456
Growth Rate (5yr)	4.3%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

28.82%

Full Kelly

14.41%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 45/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

32.12

RSI(14)

-16.788

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-21.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (40d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-11.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	32.12	NEUTRAL
Macd	-16.788	BEARISH
Ma Cross	484.36 / 458.57	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.82x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	556.52
Bollinger Upper	503.57
SMA(200)	458.57
SMA(50)	484.36
SMA(20)	452.07
Current Price	426.37
Bollinger Lower	400.57
52-Week Low	330.00
ATR(14)	13.01

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	No Demand	0.58x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-06	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.3x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	431.20	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	466.45	Base line
Senkou A	448.83	Leading span A
Senkou B	488.23	Leading span B
Cloud	448.83 – 488.23	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	426.37	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	483.92	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH