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The Home Depot, Inc.

HD · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
321.05 USD
+0.00 (0.94%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

38
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 30
Momentum 43
Fundamental 78
Macro 64
Liquidity 50
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 29.5 30%
Momentum 43.2 15%
Fundamental 77.8 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 50.5 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 321.05
Stop Loss 306.53 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 335.57 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 350.09 (+9.1%)
ATR(14) 7.26 (2.3%)
Risk per Share 14.52
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 37.7 -0.49
Momentum 43.2 -0.27
Quality 51.1 +0.04
Composite 44.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 6.59 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 22.5 18.0 +25% above
P/B Ratio 19.3 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 2.9% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
206.76
vs
Market Price
321.05
Upside
-35.6%
Margin of Safety -55.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)52,052,731,699
Terminal Value PV154,230,628,296
Total Enterprise Value206,283,359,995

Assumptions

Base FCF11,405,587,804
Growth Rate (5yr)5.7%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
23.51%
Full Kelly
11.76%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 38/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
40.18
RSI(14)
-4.938
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

36
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-0.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (45d since high)
Sector Outperformance -0.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 40.18 NEUTRAL
Macd -4.938 BEARISH
Ma Cross 336.73 / 338.64 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.62x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High426.75
Bollinger Upper351.99
SMA(200)338.64
SMA(50)336.73
SMA(20)332.45
Current Price321.05
Bollinger Lower312.9
52-Week Low289.10
ATR(14)7.26

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.06x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.96x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.93x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.62x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 326.11 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 335.47 Base line
Senkou A 330.79 Leading span A
Senkou B 335.72 Leading span B
Cloud 330.79 – 335.72 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 321.05 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 329.53 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 312.9 – 351.99  |  KC: 321.27 – 343.62

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 12

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 328.80 Anchor: 2026-05-19 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -2.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (4 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/HD

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap320.31B
P/E (TTM)22.47
Forward P/EN/A
P/B19.28
EPS14.29

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth5.7%
Profit Margin8.4%
ROE1.0%
Debt/Equity380.26
Current Ratio1.08
Dividend Yield2.9%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.95

Trading Data

321.05
Open
321.05
Day High
321.05
Day Low
2.26M
Volume (0.5x avg)

Recent News (8)

Home Depot Expands Supply Chain: Will it Boost Efficiency?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Retailers are Handling Tariff Refunds in Very Different Ways: Walmart and Home Depot
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-06
Home Depot Just Reported Earnings. Here's Whether the Dow Dividend Stock Is Still a Buy.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-06
How Home Depot’s AI Magic Apron Rollout and Capital Moves Will Impact Home Depot (HD) Investors
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
3 Unstoppable Dow Stocks to Buy in September
Motley Fool · 2026-09-05
Why Cheap LOW Stock Fails Part Of The Value Test
Trefis · 2026-09-04
Uneven Investor Sentiment Toward Hardline Retailers Could Persist Amid Macro Headwinds, UBS Says
MT Newswires · 2026-09-04
Retail Earnings Just Exposed a Bigger Divide in the U.S. Consumer Economy
MarketBeat · 2026-09-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —