Hormel Foods Corporation

HRL · Consumer Defensive · · USD

21.54 USD

0.00 (-0.65%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 39

Momentum 36

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 43

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	20%
Trend & RS	39.1	30%
Momentum	36.0	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	43.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	21.54
Stop Loss	20.42 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	22.66 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	23.78 (+10.4%)

ATR(14)	0.56 (2.6%)
Risk per Share	1.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	61.6	+0.47
Momentum	36.0	-0.56
Quality	31.2	-0.75
Composite	43.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	34.7	18.0	+93% above
P/B Ratio	1.5	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	5.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

7.65

Market Price

21.54

Upside

-64.5%

Margin of Safety	-181.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,123,372,603
Terminal Value PV	3,088,873,722
Total Enterprise Value	4,212,246,325

Assumptions

Base FCF	272,973,995
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

29.28%

Full Kelly

14.64%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

29.03

RSI(14)

-0.8247

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-12.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-10.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	29.03	OVERSOLD
Macd	-0.8247	BEARISH
Ma Cross	24.38 / 23.0	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.7x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	26.60
Bollinger Upper	25.84
SMA(200)	23.0
SMA(50)	24.38
SMA(20)	23.33
Current Price	21.54
Bollinger Lower	20.82
52-Week Low	19.70
ATR(14)	0.56

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	22.60	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	23.30	Base line
Senkou A	22.95	Leading span A
Senkou B	23.79	Leading span B
Cloud	22.95 – 23.79	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	21.54	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	25.01	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH