Hormel Foods Corporation
HRL · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
50
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
53
Momentum
64
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
48
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 53.3 | 10% |
| Momentum | 63.9 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 47.6 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 22.60 |
| Stop Loss | 21.52 (4.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 23.68 (+4.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 24.76 (+9.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.54 (2.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 1.08 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 59.3 | +0.37 | |
| Momentum | 63.9 | +0.56 | |
| Quality | 31.2 | -0.75 | |
| Composite | 51.5 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✗
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.5 | 18.0 | +102% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.6 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 5.2% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
7.65
vs
Market Price
22.60
Upside
-66.1%
| Margin of Safety | -195.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,123,372,597 |
| Terminal Value PV | 3,088,873,702 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 4,212,246,299 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 272,973,994 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
32.28%
Full Kelly
16.14%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 50/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
70.05
RSI(14)
0.4678
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
33
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-3.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -17.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 70.05 | OVERBOUGHT |
| Macd | 0.4678 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 20.47 / 22.21 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.07x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 26.60 |
| Bollinger Upper | 22.72 |
| SMA(200) | 22.21 |
| SMA(50) | 20.47 |
| SMA(20) | 20.7 |
| Current Price | 22.60 |
| Bollinger Lower | 18.67 |
| 52-Week Low | 18.96 |
| ATR(14) | 0.54 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 2.12x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.27x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.05x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.07x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 21.80 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 20.96 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 21.38 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 21.23 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 21.23 – 21.38 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 22.60 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 19.66 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 18.67 – 22.72 | KC: 19.92 – 21.47
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 20 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 29 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 20.79
Anchor: 2026-10-12 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+8.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/HRL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 12.44B |
| P/E (TTM) | 36.45 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.59 |
| EPS | 0.62 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.4% |
| Profit Margin | 2.8% |
| ROE | 4.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 36.33 |
| Current Ratio | 1.88 |
| Dividend Yield | 5.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.26 |
Trading Data
22.60
Open
22.60
Day High
22.60
Day Low
5.42M
Volume (1.0x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)