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Hormel Foods Corporation

HRL · Consumer Defensive · · USD
21.54 USD
0.00 (-0.65%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

50
/ 100
Technical 40
Trend & RS 39
Momentum 36
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 43
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 40.0 10%
Trend & RS 39.1 10%
Momentum 36.0 5%
Fundamental 55.6 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 43.4 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 21.54
Stop Loss 20.42 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 22.66 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 23.78 (+10.4%)
ATR(14) 0.56 (2.6%)
Risk per Share 1.12
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 61.6 +0.47
Momentum 36.0 -0.56
Quality 31.2 -0.75
Composite 43.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 34.7 18.0 +93% above
P/B Ratio 1.5 2.5 Below
Dividend Yield 5.4% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
7.65
vs
Market Price
21.54
Upside
-64.5%
Margin of Safety -181.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)1,123,372,603
Terminal Value PV3,088,873,722
Total Enterprise Value4,212,246,325

Assumptions

Base FCF272,973,995
Growth Rate (5yr)2.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
32.72%
Full Kelly
16.36%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 50/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
29.03
RSI(14)
-0.8247
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

35
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-12.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance -10.2% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 29.03 OVERSOLD
Macd -0.8247 BEARISH
Ma Cross 24.38 / 23.0 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.7x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High26.60
Bollinger Upper25.84
SMA(200)23.0
SMA(50)24.38
SMA(20)23.33
Current Price21.54
Bollinger Lower20.82
52-Week Low19.70
ATR(14)0.56

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.38x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.02x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.83x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.92x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.7x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 22.60 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 23.30 Base line
Senkou A 22.95 Leading span A
Senkou B 23.79 Leading span B
Cloud 22.95 – 23.79 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 21.54 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 25.01 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 20.82 – 25.84  |  KC: 22.52 – 24.15

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 23.50 Anchor: 2026-05-15 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -8.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/HRL

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap11.85B
P/E (TTM)34.74
Forward P/EN/A
P/B1.51
EPS0.62

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth-2.9%
Profit Margin2.8%
ROE4.3%
Debt/Equity4.24
Current Ratio1.88
Dividend Yield5.4%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.32

Trading Data

21.54
Open
21.54
Day High
21.54
Day Low
3.78M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

2 Big Food Dividends Were Just Cut. 3 More Quietly Stopped Growing.
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-05
What Does Hormel Foods (HRL) Naming A New CFO Mean For Investors?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
Hormel Foods (HRL) Stock Sees Fair Value Edges Lower After Measured Analyst Revisions
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Hormel (HRL) Expanded Adjusted Operating Margin Despite a Volume Decline. Can Cost Savings Carry the Turnaround?
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-04
Nvidia, Tesla, Robinhood, Snowflake, Ultragenyx, Ciena, and More Stocks That Explain Today’s Market
Barrons.com · 2026-09-03
Campbell Cuts Dividend, Tyson Slashes Outlook as Food Stocks Get Crushed
Barrons.com · 2026-09-03
Campbell's Issues Downbeat Outlook, Cuts Dividend Amid Inflation Headwinds
MT Newswires · 2026-09-03
Hormel vs. General Mills: Don’t Let the Bigger Dividend Check Fool You
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-02

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —