The Hershey Company
HSY · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
40
/ 100
Technical
40
Trend & RS
40
Momentum
47
Fundamental
44
Macro
24
Liquidity
68
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 40.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 39.7 | 30% |
| Momentum | 47.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 67.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 177.43 |
| Stop Loss | 167.99 (5.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 186.87 (+5.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 196.31 (+10.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.72 (2.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.44 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 47.4 | -0.10 | |
| Momentum | 47.0 | -0.12 | |
| Quality | 55.4 | +0.22 | |
| Composite | 49.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.1 | 18.0 | +12% above |
| P/B Ratio | 7.3 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
113.96
vs
Market Price
177.43
Upside
-35.8%
| Margin of Safety | -55.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 6,015,743,932 |
| Terminal Value PV | 16,887,293,364 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 22,903,037,296 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,421,333,216 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
24.35%
Full Kelly
12.17%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
60.88
RSI(14)
1.1543
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
24
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+3.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (52d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -11.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 60.88 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.1543 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 168.52 / 186.57 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | UPPER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.43x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 239.48 |
| Bollinger Upper | 176.91 |
| SMA(200) | 186.57 |
| SMA(50) | 168.52 |
| SMA(20) | 167.81 |
| Current Price | 177.43 |
| Bollinger Lower | 158.71 |
| 52-Week Low | 156.16 |
| ATR(14) | 4.72 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.29x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.89x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.43x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 169.22 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 167.36 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 168.29 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 172.53 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 168.29 – 172.53 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 177.43 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 159.30 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 158.71 – 176.91 | KC: 160.79 – 174.83
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 15 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 166.41
Anchor: 2026-10-01 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.6%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/HSY
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 35.66B |
| P/E (TTM) | 20.07 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 7.31 |
| EPS | 8.84 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0% |
| Profit Margin | 14.6% |
| ROE | 38.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 111.37 |
| Current Ratio | 1.24 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.07 |
Trading Data
177.43
Open
177.43
Day High
177.43
Day Low
2.49M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)