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The Hershey Company

HSY · Consumer Defensive · · USD
173.15 USD
0.00 (-1.09%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

48
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 45
Momentum 33
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 48
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 10%
Trend & RS 45.1 10%
Momentum 33.3 5%
Fundamental 55.6 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 47.5 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 173.15
Stop Loss 165.15 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1) 181.15 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1) 189.15 (+9.2%)
ATR(14) 4.00 (2.3%)
Risk per Share 8.00
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 41.8 -0.33
Momentum 33.3 -0.67
Quality 49.8 -0.01
Composite 41.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 23.6 18.0 +31% above
P/B Ratio 7.6 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 3.4% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
110.02
vs
Market Price
173.15
Upside
-36.5%
Margin of Safety -57.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)5,505,716,468
Terminal Value PV16,599,710,067
Total Enterprise Value22,105,426,535

Assumptions

Base FCF1,176,620,634
Growth Rate (5yr)6.6%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
30.72%
Full Kelly
15.36%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 48/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
38.3
RSI(14)
-0.9328
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

62
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY → FLAT (-10.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance -7.9% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 38.3 NEUTRAL
Macd -0.9328 BEARISH
Ma Cross 177.94 / 189.76 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.3x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High239.48
Bollinger Upper191.86
SMA(200)189.76
SMA(50)177.94
SMA(20)182.12
Current Price173.15
Bollinger Lower172.37
52-Week Low161.43
ATR(14)4.0

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence
67%
Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.48x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.36x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.3x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 180.47 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 181.24 Base line
Senkou A 180.85 Leading span A
Senkou B 178.95 Leading span B
Cloud 178.95 – 180.85 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 173.15 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 173.68 Bearish
Alignment Score 1/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 172.37 – 191.86  |  KC: 176.47 – 187.76

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 15
Hidden Bullish MACD 15

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 189.30 Anchor: 2025-11-03 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -8.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/HSY

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap34.79B
P/E (TTM)23.65
Forward P/EN/A
P/B7.62
EPS7.32

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth6.6%
Profit Margin12.2%
ROE32.8%
Debt/Equity129.82
Current Ratio1.18
Dividend Yield3.4%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.10

Trading Data

173.15
Open
173.15
Day High
173.15
Day Low
1.49M
Volume (0.8x avg)

Recent News (8)

PepsiCo's Snack Portfolio: What's Driving Volume Gains?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Hershey (HSY) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know
Zacks · 2026-09-04
There's no end in sight for Campbell's quarterly sales declines: AlphaSpace
Yahoo Finance Video · 2026-09-03
Hershey finance exec succeeds retiring CFO
CFO Dive · 2026-09-03
United Natural's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What Should You Expect?
Zacks · 2026-09-03
2 S&P 500 Stocks with Competitive Advantages and 1 That Underwhelm
StockStory · 2026-09-02
Hershey's Pricing Holds Firm: Can Volume Pressure Ease From Here?
Zacks · 2026-09-02
Why Is Hershey (HSY) Bringing New Creme Bars And Coffee Into Its Brand Mix?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-01

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —